Hello, my name is Dahlia and I'm a graduate student at the University of Michigan. We're fortunate to have with us Dr. Rosina Bierbaum, a leading national and international expert on climate change. In addition to being a faculty member and former dean at the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment. Dr. Bierbaum has advised the White House and the World Bank on climate change and served as the research editor for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Welcome, Dr. Bierbaum. >> Good morning. >> We're really glad to have you with us for this course. And to get things started I was hoping that you could talk more specifically about climate mitigation and adaptation. These are words that arise often in conversations about climate change. And it would be good for you to explain to us what they refer and they differ. >> Certainly, vocabulary is very important. And in the climate change lexicon, mitigation actually means reducing the greenhouse gas emissions, the heat trapping emissions. And so, that can occur by reducing are use of carbon based fuels, which is coal, oil and gas. They all produce carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. In fact, in the United State 80% of our greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, so we can reduce it by burning less of that fuel. By using more efficient cars, so that we get more miles per gallon. But there are other greenhouse gasses too that we should think about, and mitigation of those include methane. We hear a lot about that from landfills and livestock. Also nitrous oxide, that comes from fertilizers and high heat burning of various things, biomass burning. And then there are the hydrofluorocarbons, the HFCs, which were actually replacements for other refrigerants and coolants that destroyed the ozone layer. But we've now found out that those also have heat trapping capabilities and are contributing to the greenhouse effect. So mitigation means reducing the emissions of those into the atmosphere. Now, there are a lot of ways that you can mitigate. You can do it by increasing energy efficiency, so you can go further on the energy you have or your house is more efficient. But you can also move to non green house gas emitting sources of energy which will be very important such as renewables. And we see a lot of change in solar and wind in recent years so those are great because they don't increase the green house gases in the atmosphere. But mitigation can also mean that you actually suck the [LAUGH] green house gases out of the atmosphere. And so if you think about trees as you grow a tree it takes carbon dioxide out in the atmosphere and its holding that carbon in trees and in forest. So enhancing growth of biomass is very important, and also avoiding deforestation which is happening to a great extent across the globe is very important. So hold the carbon you have in trees, increase it through trees, move to different sources of energy that don't produce carbon dioxide or the other greenhouse gases and that's the envelope within which mitigation is used in the climate lexicon. >> Okay, and what about adaptation? How does that defer from mitigation? >> Well, adaptation is actually the process of adjusting or coping with climate change and so this means protecting yourself from the impacts of climate change such as rise in sea levels or the heat island affect in cities. Where the elderly and the very young will really be at risk. So, if you could take protective measures to keep the population from experiencing the impacts of climate change that all comes under the term of adaptation. And if you think about it, adaptation could either be anticipatory, so you're planning ahead. Which is good [LAUGH] and things like insurance are kind of anticipatory. But it can also be reactive adaptation, I'm sorry to say, is what we mainly seem to be doing in this country and around the world. So already, with the one degree Celsius increase in temperature that we've seen since pre industrial times. We're seeing changes in increased rainfall events, increased heat events, droughts, wild fires, it's beginning to sound like the plagues. And we're seeing communities react and respond and adapt, sort of after the fact. And so I would argue that anticipatory adaptation is something that we have to increasingly move towards. If we continue to plan infrastructure or manage ecosystems. Assuming that the climate of the last 100 years is stationary we will be surely wrong, and so if we do not come up with some anticipatory adaptation measures. We will exceed the design feature of our infrastructure. As well as the species capacities that we are planting and hoping to survive, and get livelihoods from, our food, fiber, shelter. So I would argue adaptation coping with climate change, very important. We have to really ramp up our attention to it. It's been far less addressed than all the many possibilities for how we can reduce emissions. >> Okay. A very helpful overview, thank you [LAUGH]. So recognizing there is a difference between mitigation and adaptation. What is important for our learners to be thinking about when they're understanding what they can do on climate change. And when they're thinking about the differences between mitigation and adaptation and how they can take action on both? So I think one thing is that we now have come to realize that both mitigation and adaptation are needed, and are needed rapidly because neither one can solve the problem. Mitigation will take a long time and if you look at the amazing agreement in Paris, to control greenhouse gasses. That agreement will still not keep the temperatures of the planet from rising to only two degrees, which is the level most scientists. To have agreed as necessary to avoid dangerous, in the terms of the Framer Convention to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, and that's two degrees Celsius which is 3.6 Fahrenheit. So even though there's this amazing agreement, it's not enough to keep us from heading into dangerous territory for ecosystems and people and infrastructure. And so, we need as much mitigation as fast as we can, and reduce those greenhouse gas emissions. But we're already seeing, as I said, changes that are requiring us to adapt. So we need to be thinking proactively about adaptation in every situation of managing natural resources or planning future infrastructure because we hope those things will persist for many, many decades even as climate is changing. And even as we're trying to mitigate the effects. So I guess to conclude I would say that adaptation gets costlier as climate change proceeds and it will be less effective. And we know that the pace and magnitude of climate change is increasing now. So we need enough mitigation to avoid the unmanageable, and enough adaptation to manage that which is unavoidable. And I would just remind you that even in the United States we've had. Five 1,000 year floods in 2016. We are clearly outside the normal envelope of temperature. And this can only be explained by greenhouse gasses being added to the atmosphere. So we're in an era of meeting as much mitigation as fast as we can, and as much proactive adaptation as is possible. >> I think you did a really good job of capturing the urgency and the need to act. But also the complexities that we, in some ways, need to learn how to walk and chew gum. We need to be mitigating and adopting simultaneously. As we were preparing this course, that was something we certainly recognized but we managed to come across a lot more examples and a lot more actions that were related to mitigation and not as many examples related to adaptation. So as an expert on climate change I was hoping that maybe you could provide an example on what adaptation looks like and paint a picture of what adaptation actions look like. >> That's a very interesting question, I do think adaptation has been under attended to. I would argue that it is a local communities that are on the cutting edge of that adaptation because they're seeing these flooding, droughts, wildfires. And in real time they have to adapt. I remember giving a climate change talk a few years ago to mayors, and the mayor of Duluth said, stop telling me what's going to happen, just tell me what I should do now. I'm getting extreme rainfall events, 24 hour rainfall in one hour. Should I develop the wetlands on one side of town where it's steep? But the wetlands are helping store all this extra water. And so in real time, I think cities are actually making decisions that are helping with adaptation. When I participated with several students in the US National Climate Assessment in 2014. We set out to try to figure out what's happening, who's trying what, what are these experiments and adaptation. And I'm happy to say that, in the few years since then, we're seeing hundreds of examples of cities trying to think about adaptation and really taking action. And so for example, Manhattan where there is an awful lot of expensive infrastructure and very subject to sea level rise and storm surge. They are trying to bring back 127 acres of wetlands which will help protect against the storm surge. A great concern about climate change is the urban heat island effect because, of course, cities are warmer than the surrounding countryside. And as climate changes, cities can be many degrees warmer than the countryside. And we've seen heat stress events, especially in Chicago a few years back, where some 700 people died from temperatures that never got cool enough in the night time. In fact, it was the night time highs that seemed related with deaths. And it was the elderly and the young that are particularly sensitive. So, urban heat island effect is something many cities are thinking about, and New York City is one where they've decided, wherever we can, we're going to paint the roofs white, because that helps reflect the incoming radiation, and to keep the housing cooler. And similarly in Chicago, there was a big effort under Mayor Daley, to put giant green roofs on giant buildings. And green roofs are actually plants and they can help absorb water and hold it in the soils, but they also cool the building. And there's an example in Chicago of a building that is half green roof and half black roof and the temperature difference is during the middle of the day in the summer were astounding. So a very real example of how green roofs and white roofs can help. Water is really the linchpin of climate change. Too much, too little, wrong time, wrong quality and so you're seeing a lot of actions in water. So cities as different as Santa Clara, California and El Paso, Texas have implemented water conservation efforts because they have been seeing a lot of drought and heat stress. In our own city of Ann Arbor, we lost all of our ash trees due to the emerald ash pour and that was one of the six trees approved for city plantings. Well, now that we have to replace them, the city is thinking about what trees are likely to persist over the next several decades, during which time we expect the climate change map to slowly march north. We've also implemented in the city rates for our storm water utility and so impervious surfaces, cement, are really risky for lots of runoff. And so our utility system is based on how mow much impervious surface you have, or the more pervious surface [LAUGH] you have, where water can drain through is better. So they're actually incentives for not just paving over things. And probably the poster child of adaptation was Keene New Hampshire way back in 2007. They realized that their culverts and drainage systems were being overloaded by rainfall. And as I've said we are seeing increasing intensity and frequency of rainfall as climate changes. So they said we're just going to have to build them bigger. And so they took upon themselves with their infrastructure planning to actually now make them deeper, and they're studying as these increasing rainfall events continue to come through to see whether or not they have as much adaptive capacity as they need. Some counties like Miami Dade County where sea level rise is going to be a problem and we're already seeing that they need to use pumping stations during high tides. They're looking at something like a $400 million project to try to pump water out. Another example is the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts where we expect there could be quite a bit of flooding as sea level rises, and especially during high tides. They're wondering whether they should actually allow basement apartments anymore because the flooding may happen. So, a lot of issues related to zoning, to habitat management, to protecting people's health are popping up as areas where adaptation to climate change is something we need to consider. >> Great, thank you. You've provided a number of examples for cities in the United States. Do you have any additional examples for cities around the world? >> Well I suppose one of the most famous ones is the water barriers in the Thames, where they will be able to close them if sea level and flooding becomes a real problem. And of course the Netherlands, which is a place that has dealt with flooding for many, many years. You can now find people that are living in floating houses and so those will be able to rise and fall with the sea level which may in a way be an ultimate adaptation in a flooded area. >> Yeah, certainly. So as you know, we are embarking as part of this course on a sustained period of study in action to address, as well as adopt, to climate change. And as you mentioned, adaptation is something that people are coming to late, but there's a lot of excitement around adaptation. So based on your work and experience, what are recommendations that you have for our learners about what actions they can take as individuals to respond to climate change and adapt to climate change? >> Well I think that climate change is going to be a defining feature of all of the students' lives. And so I think you need to think about it in that way. I think you need to think about climate change in all aspects of your life and how you can do Both more mitigation and adaptation to climate change, as you proceed, because both are needed as fast as possible. So one of the things that I would suggest is that each of you produce for yourself a carbon footprint. And there many ways that you can do this. There are many websites that you can go to. And once you figure out where your greenhouse gas emissions are coming from in your current lifestyle, figure out if there's a way you can reduce it 20%, just for starters, and it's not that hard. You can walk, you can bike, you can bus, you can buy a more efficient car, you can mitigate your footprint. If you're at the stage in your life where you're buying a house, you might want to see, is it energy efficient? Do you have a white roof to cool it? Can you put a green roof on it? Is it in a flood zone? Are you going to able to adapt? Is it subject to sea level rise? Depending on where you live in the country. Are there shade trees to cool that house, so that the urban heat island effect is not so serious in the summer? Are the trees around you drought tolerant and flood tolerant? If you're into landscaping, think about what plants you're going to put there that may or may not be able to persist. As we look at the plant hardiness zones, where plants can live, we've seen that they've shifted significantly in the last decade. And over the next 30 years, they're projected to shift by as much as 120 miles north. And when I first mentioned this to our landscape architects in the school, they said, but we tell everyone to plant native. What is native if plants are actually marching towards the poles as the temperature and moisture regimes push them in that way? So I think we really need to think about every decision in your life, from purchases to behavior. And whether you are exacerbating climate change or contributing to mitigating and whether you are actually making yourself and your community and your country more adaptive. >> Great, that's a great call to action on the individual level. And as part of the course, we're encouraging our learners to think how they can come together in community and take action on climate change. So what would be a good recommendation to transition from the individual level to the community level? >> Well, I would say that the most important thing that you can do is to actually get involved in your community decision making process. And be sure that climate change concerns are addressed in all actions, all infrastructure, all laws, all regulations. Democracy is a participatory sport, and you have to be part of making the world a sustainable one for you and for your children where climate change is going to be very evident. If we end up at a roasted world, where the world that's 4 degree Celsius, almost 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was in the pre-industrial era, that is not a sustainable world. And striving to get at what the scientist are calling for only a 2 degree C, 2.6 degree F warmer world is still not going to be a picnic. If we are successful at that 2 degree world, we may still lose 20 to 30% of species. Another billion people in the world may be under water stress. The coral reefs might be gone. So it's going to be a tough slog and so it's very important. All of us live in a community, a university community, a city, a state, a country. And much like what we could think about at the personal level, we should think about how we can make our communities more climate proofed. So I would say, you've got to get involved to improve your place. You should volunteer to serve on environment committees. You should certainly express your concerns to your mayor, to your congressmen who will listen to you, especially if you're in their district, to your city council. And if infrastructures or parks are being developed, make sure that on the agenda is thinking about whether these will persist as climate changes. I think that it's really important also though to be a concerned citizen and a civic scientist. >> Mm-hm. >> And what I would say is that I think every student ought to be able to explain what climate change is to their parents, their grandparents, their children, their city council member, their member of Congress. And so one of the things that I would hope the students of this course leave with is the ability to do that. And one of the ways I keep in my mind how to do the climate story is just ten words, which come from a Yale professor, Tony Lasserwitz and a George Mason professor, Ed Maybach. And these ten words, if you can remember this, will help you shape a story that you can tell to any member of your family. So the first is, it's real. Climate change is real. Plenty of facts you can put behind that. It's us. You can't explain it without humans causing this. It's bad. We're headed to a roasted world. Scientists agree, very important with all of the media flurry out there. The fact that scientists agree, 97% of scientists agree it's real, it's bad, it's us, is something that really needs to be spread more widely. And then the fifth two word is there's hope. There's plenty that we can do on both mitigation and adaptation. So I hope that you and all the students will frame for yourself your own story around these ten words. It's real, it's us, it's bad, scientists agree, and there's hope and communicate that to everyone. >> Great, thank you. We certainly have our work cut out for us, but it's good that we're embarking on this course to learn more and prepare to take action. I want to thank you, Dr. Birnbaum, for joining us as a leading expert on climate change, on climate mitigation, adaptation which we just learned a lot more about. We're certainly more informed and you shared a lot of knowledge that we're going to be able to apply moving forward in this course, so thank you for joining us. >> That's great, thank you. It was a great pleasure to all of you.
