The first course of the specialization ANALYZING COMPLEXITY will teach you what unifying patterns lie at the core of all complex problems. It advances your knowledge of your own field by teaching you to look at it in new ways. ANALYZING COMPLEXITY is constructed in the following way: Week I. "What is Complexity?" - What is at the core of all complex problems Week II. "Complex Physical Systems" - What complex problems all have in common in the inanimate world Week III. "Complex Adaptive Systems" - What complex problems all have in common in nature Week IV. "Complex Cultural Systems" - What complex problems all have in common in human society Week V. "Complexity, Fragility, and Breakdown" - Why complex problems arise Week VI. "Complexity in the Anthropocene" - What complex problems face us today
Population Health in the Anthropocene
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From the course by Macquarie University
Analysing Complexity
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From the lesson
Complexity in the Anthropocene
Now that we've explored the different kinds of complex systems and have some idea of the risks and dangers involved, this module will look at how these concerns impact us in the present Anthropocene epoch, where humanity faces many threats of decline and collapse amid the most complex system that we know of in the visible universe.
Meet the Instructors
David BakerAssociate Lecturer
Big History Institute
David ChristianProfessor
Big History Institute
Shawn RossAssociate Professor
Big History Institute
The big question for this segment is what challenges does
the Anthropocene throw at living standards and health of populations?
[MUSIC]
We've come to a time in history which some have called the modern era and
others describe as post-modern.
Regardless of contemporary titles,
we're clearly in the Anthropocene, the era when human activities are having
a significant global impact on Earth's geology and ecosystems.
Leaving aside contested challenges of definition, and those about dating
the Anthropocene, in health and medicine, we're between a rock and a hard place.
We've exploited the huge scientific advances and technological achievements
which benefit human health for some populations of the Earth.
But the Anthropocene brings with it accelerating risks for
populations in both rich and especially poor countries.
There are polarized views on whether the Anthropocene represents a world of
opportunity or the death of civilization as we know it.
Whichever way we look at it, the Anthropocene has clear and
present ramifications for the health system.
For individual and human population health and for
living standards which contribute to healthy populations.
First, the negatives.
At the center of risks to human health lies climate change.
Perhaps we should give it its more controversial but accurate label.
It's global warming.
Extreme heat events are increasingly responsible for deaths, in rich and
poor countries.
But especially those which are already near the equator.
Such as Africa, Austro-Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and South America.
Many countries in the tropical zones, are poorer countries, such as India.
Those comprising Indochina, for example Vietnam,
Cambodia, Laos and those in Sub-Saharian Africa.
These are disproportionately affected.
Temperatures have already risen by almost a degree on average.
And as they rise further, the pressure of heat waves,
oscillating climates inducing storms, hurricanes, and drought,
all exacerbated by temperature increases, will cause huge challenges.
Another major impact of climate change in the Anthropocene would be rising
sea levels.
This too disproportionately impacts on developing countries and
low lying poorer countries, such as Bangladesh.
While there'll be lots more sea water, global warming means that
melting Himalayan and polar ice means less access to clean water.
So the wrong sort of water will lead to serious sanitation and health problems.
Populations are rising faster in poor countries than rich countries.
But overall, the Earth's populations are continuing to grow.
This leads to a number of Anthropocene stimulated problems
in population dense regions and countries.
Such as more likelihood of infectious disease transmission.
For example, malaria, Zika virus, HIV AIDS, STDs,
and emerging infectious diseases from previously unidentified organisms.
Environmental consequences of Anthropocene behaviors also pose issues.
Overcrowding in cities increases carbon emissions
creating a positive feedback loop.
As people leave drought induced or otherwise marginal arable land and
head for the cities.
Pollution and smog in cities, such as those in rapidly urbanizing China,
feature heavily on evening news broadcasts and are evocative.
And in some ways, represent the poster child for
what the Anthropocene means to many people.
Although extreme poverty is falling in many places,
there are still some 9.6% of the world's population,
around 700 million people, living on less than US $1.90 per day.
In other words, extreme poverty.
Another 4.4%, or 300 millions people, are in absolute poverty.
Poverty leads to may deleterious outcomes including reduce life spans,
hungry, stunted growth amongst children, and unacceptably high infant,
and maternal mortality rates.
Although the burden is mostly shouldered by poor countries, the Anthropocene is
also associated with challenges, and difficulties, for the rich world.
Rapidly aging populations, such as those of France,
Japan, Canada, and Switzerland, need more healthcare.
As life spans increase, a bigger proportion of older people
will be living with cancer and other chronic diseases.
Being rich also comes with so called lifestyle diseases.
Including dementia, diabetes, obesity, and excessive drug and alcohol consumption.
So living longer and being wealthy is not a universally good thing.
Simply put, older people wear out, and it's costly to treat lots of them.
Health and medical personnel and a bigger proportion of GDP will need
to be assigned to cope with the tsunami of care needed
Second, we turn to the positive effects of the Anthropocene.
The main ones emerge from the rise of science and technology.
Human ingenuity is now encoded, not in simple stone tools or
relatively straightforward hunting and
gathering techniques, as it was for millennia, before 10,000 years ago.
But in technology and science, we've been truly innovative as a species.
We have the capacity to run studies, analyze big data, and
understand the world we inhabit.
We've created much of our own destiny with the help of technology and
scientific advances.
Motor vehicles, modern music, modern skyscrapers,
stock exchanges, universities, biochemistry, gene therapy,
advanced motor transport and space craft moving beyond our own gravity,
such as those at Jupiter and beyond Pluto right now.
These are amongst only some of the more prominent of advances that come
immediately to mind.
These are symbols of our success in the Anthropocene.
They've made life better and more interesting for many people and
psychologically healthy.
And created meaningful jobs and careers for many people.
Feeding the modern innovative capacity of humanity,
arising from science and technology, into the health of populations and
living standards, has not been cheap or easy however.
Yet GDP has been rising for hundreds of years and
now we can pay at least in some societies for new diagnostic capabilities.
Extremely smart and effective drugs, very beneficial treatments and
procedures and electronic databases for
storing information about our unique genetic profiles and disease histories.
The emergence in use of innovative methods that translate modern technology into
advance health procedures and outcomes for patients haven't stop there.
For example, diseases like syphilis, smallpox, many cancers and
heart disease are no longer a death sentence.
Another example is personalized health aids,
which are now ubiquitous, at least in wealthy societies.
We can monitor our heart rates and vital signs while exercising,
measure how far we walk, and calculate our calorie intake.
All of this, now, underpins a health system that learns,
provides feedback to individuals and populations on their health status,
prevents or cures disease, and is ripe with promise for future advances.
The only limits are the boundaries of human ingenuity and
the value we place on committing expenditure to healthcare
compared to allocating resources to other parts of the economy.
And, of course, the capacity or willingness of individuals to pay.
In concluding the Anthropocene poses many challenges but
also provides the opportunity and potential for humanity to be innovative
and solve complex health problems in ways that wouldn't be possible
without the technological advances of the Anthropocene.
In many places, human health is improving.
Associated with rising living standards, technology, and
amazing diagnostic, genetic and therapeutic advances.
But it's at greater risk with environmental and climate changes.
And inequality seemed to continue to plague us.
So health status is unequal within countries and across the developing and
developed worlds.
One penultimate thought.
Can we continue to justify developing a world of Anthropocene haves and
have nots so far as human health, well being and living standards are concerned?
If we do want to solve that challenge, how will we go about it?
And finally, here's the inevitable problem I've never completely reconciled in my own
mind and grapple with frequently.
Is it the case that humans are smart enough to purpose design the world in
which we live, including creating modern health care with all its capacities and
contributions.
But not smart enough to solve
the problems that have emerged as
a result of all that ingenuity.
[MUSIC]
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