Lesson 4.4 Computing the MLE: examples

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From the course by University of California, Santa Cruz

Bayesian Statistics: From Concept to Data Analysis

1481 ratings

University of California, Santa Cruz

Bayesian Statistics: From Concept to Data Analysis

1481 ratings

This course introduces the Bayesian approach to statistics, starting with the concept of probability and moving to the analysis of data. We will learn about the philosophy of the Bayesian approach as well as how to implement it for common types of data. We will compare the Bayesian approach to the more commonly-taught Frequentist approach, and see some of the benefits of the Bayesian approach. In particular, the Bayesian approach allows for better accounting of uncertainty, results that have more intuitive and interpretable meaning, and more explicit statements of assumptions. This course combines lecture videos, computer demonstrations, readings, exercises, and discussion boards to create an active learning experience. For computing, you have the choice of using Microsoft Excel or the open-source, freely available statistical package R, with equivalent content for both options. The lectures provide some of the basic mathematical development as well as explanations of philosophy and interpretation. Completion of this course will give you an understanding of the concepts of the Bayesian approach, understanding the key differences between Bayesian and Frequentist approaches, and the ability to do basic data analyses.

From the lesson

Statistical Inference

This module introduces concepts of statistical inference from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. Lesson 4 takes the frequentist view, demonstrating maximum likelihood estimation and confidence intervals for binomial data. Lesson 5 introduces the fundamentals of Bayesian inference. Beginning with a binomial likelihood and prior probabilities for simple hypotheses, you will learn how to use Bayes’ theorem to update the prior with data to obtain posterior probabilities. This framework is extended with the continuous version of Bayes theorem to estimate continuous model parameters, and calculate posterior probabilities and credible intervals.

Lesson 4.1 Confidence intervals4:57

Lesson 4.2 Likelihood function and maximum likelihood7:06

Lesson 4.3 Computing the MLE3:02

Lesson 4.4 Computing the MLE: examples4:21

Introduction to R6:57

Plotting the likelihood in R4:38

Plotting the likelihood in Excel4:48

Meet the Instructors

Herbert Lee
Professor
Applied Mathematics and Statistics

Some more examples of maximum likelihood estimators.

The exponential distribution.

Suppose that we have samples from an exponential distribution

with parameter lambda.

Recall that the density is the product

of lambda e to the minus lambda, x sub i.

Working on this product, we can actually collapse it, so that this is

lambda to the n times e to the minus lambda times the sum of the x sub is.

Thus the likelihood function as a function of lambda,

given x, is lambda to the n, e to the minus lambda, sum of the x sub is.

We take the log of this, we get the log likelihood,

which is m log lambda minus lambda times the sum of the x sub is.

We take the first derivative of this.

We get n over lambda minus the sum of the x sub is.

We set that equal to 0.

This gives us a maximum likelihood estimate,

lambda half of n over the sum of x of is or 1 over the average.

This makes sense because the mean for an exponential distribution is 1 over lambda.

And so if we take 1 over the sample average,

we get a maximum likelihood estimate for lambda.

Another example would be a uniform distribution.

Suppose the x sun is, or our iid, from uniform distribution where we know it

starts at 0 but the upper end point theta is unknown.

This case, our density function,

Is the product when i goes 1 to n of 1 over theta, the density,

times an indicator function that all the observations are between 0 and theta.

The likelihood then we can rewrite as L of theta, given x.

The product of these 1 over thetas is just theta to the minus n.

Combining all the indicator functions, for

this to be a 1, each of these has to be true.

These are each going to be true if all the observations are bigger than 0,

as in the minimum of the x is bigger than or equal to 0.

And then the maximum of the xs is less than or equal to theta.

In this particular case, we don't have a need for a logarithm,

it's not actually going to help us.

This is one of the few exceptions where the logarithm is not so helpful.

So we'll look directly at the derivative of the likelihood itself.

Derivative of theta to the minus

n is minus n to the theta to -n + 1.

And then this indicator function hangs around.

They don't go away when you take derivatives.

They just hang around.

So now we can ask, can we set this equal to 0 and solve for theta?

Well it turns out, this is not equal to 0 for any theta positive value.

We need theta to be strictly larger than 0.

This will never be a 0 in that interval.

However, we can also note that for theta positive, this will always be negative.

The derivative is negative, that says this is a decreasing function.

So this function will be maximized when we pick theta as small as possible.

What's the smallest possible value of theta we can pick?

Well we need in particular for theta to be larger than all of the x sub is.

And so, the maximum likelihood estimate is the maximum of the x sub i.

We find the largest value of our data, and that's the smallest possible

value theta could be, and that's our maximum likelihood estimate.

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