6.1: China’s Future

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From the course by The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Chinese Politics Part 1 – China and Political Science

123 ratings

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Chinese Politics Part 1 – China and Political Science

123 ratings

This course offers a conceptual framework for understanding China that highlights the intersection of politics and economics. It shows that rather than develop into a full blown market economy, state and party officials at all levels of the political system maintain significant influence in economic development. Such a “political” economy has had both positive and negative outcomes, which we will assess in detail. We also look at the origins, views, backgrounds and relations among leaders, and how those leaders make decisions about public policy and try to get those decisions implemented down through the system. China has few formal institutions through which citizens can participate in politics, but we will study the strategies Chinese people use to try to influence their leaders’ decisions. Finally, we assess China’s future and whether rapid economic development and the emergence of a vibrant middle class will push China towards greater democracy or whether the single party system is likely to survive into the future. The course is a quite useful background for Chinese Politics Part 2 – China and the World. Course Overview video: https://youtu.be/7FpNL67EbE4

From the lesson

Module 6: China’s Future: Democratization or “Flexible Authoritarianism”

6.1: China’s Future3:55

6.2: Scenario 1: Political Development and Democratic Transition11:15

6.3: Scenario 1: Further Forces for Political Development and Democratic Transition13:42

6.4: Lessons from Scenarios of Democratic Transition6:48

6.5: Scenario 2: Continued Market Leninism7:45

6.6: Constraints on Society and Ideology9:23

6.7: Xi Jinping’s Intense Attack on Corruption6:37

6.8: Jiang Zemin’s “Three Representatives” and the Role of the Middle Class9:39

6.9: Scenario 3: Collapse of the CCP6:58

6.10: Sources of Political Instability5:54

6.11: Inequality, Corruption and CCP Rule11:23

6.12: Conclusion5:21

Meet the Instructors

David Zweig
Chair Professor of the Division of Social Science and Director of Center on China’s Transnational Relations

[MUSIC]

Well, here we are.

We've been through five weeks of Chinese politics and political economy.

And now, we're moving into a very difficult topic

which is really China's future.

And this will be week six of section number one.

Now the question becomes then, will China change?

And if so, how will it change?

And predicting these kinds of things are very difficult.

So I've proposed three scenarios.

The first scenario is what I call political development and

democratic transition.

And under this we would see a liberalization, a more open system

with more political reform.

We'll go into more detail about the kinds of political and

social changes that are necessary to make this happen, but

the end result would be a gradual democratic transition.

The second scenario is to stay where we are in Market Leninism and

might even be tighter political control.

Although with flexible policies that the CCP has been using all along

that keep the system stable and maintain support for the CCP.

The third scenario, it's not one I would like to see happen,

but it is a possibility, though not very high.

Is just the idea that leadership rejects reforms,

that there's a lot of internal problems, internal disintegration,

and that the system, the CCP system actually collapses.

Now going back, you may recall, I hope you can recall, that in the first

lecture that I gave, I presented a similar to this a two by two table.

And in that table I had us moving from totalitarianism

to Market Leninism, and not from totalitarianism to political development.

So, we got to Market Leninism, and that's the way we've been talking about China,

pretty much, through all of these classes, how China has been in Market Leninism,

and staying in Market Leninism.

So, the first scenario that I [INAUDIBLE] possible would be that in fact we

do get a shift from Market Leninism down to political

development and with more political reforms and more political changes.

A second scenario is that we never move away from Market Leninism,

so I call it continued Market Leninism.

I would make a point that this concept of Market Leninism really was

put forward by, I guess it's on the previous slide.

Right here.

Nick Kristof in an article way back in the New York Times in 1993,

he put forward this concept of Market Leninism.

So here we are, Continued Market Leninism.

And that China's stable and continues without much change,

without much reform going on for the next 10, 15, 20 years maybe.

And then a third scenario is the collapse.

And here it's not within this two by two table,

it's really external to that because under this

scenario the CCP would no longer be part of the system.

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