[MUSIC] Well, here we are. We've been through five weeks of Chinese politics and political economy. And now, we're moving into a very difficult topic which is really China's future. And this will be week six of section number one. Now the question becomes then, will China change? And if so, how will it change? And predicting these kinds of things are very difficult. So I've proposed three scenarios. The first scenario is what I call political development and democratic transition. And under this we would see a liberalization, a more open system with more political reform. We'll go into more detail about the kinds of political and social changes that are necessary to make this happen, but the end result would be a gradual democratic transition. The second scenario is to stay where we are in Market Leninism and might even be tighter political control. Although with flexible policies that the CCP has been using all along that keep the system stable and maintain support for the CCP. The third scenario, it's not one I would like to see happen, but it is a possibility, though not very high. Is just the idea that leadership rejects reforms, that there's a lot of internal problems, internal disintegration, and that the system, the CCP system actually collapses. Now going back, you may recall, I hope you can recall, that in the first lecture that I gave, I presented a similar to this a two by two table. And in that table I had us moving from totalitarianism to Market Leninism, and not from totalitarianism to political development. So, we got to Market Leninism, and that's the way we've been talking about China, pretty much, through all of these classes, how China has been in Market Leninism, and staying in Market Leninism. So, the first scenario that I [INAUDIBLE] possible would be that in fact we do get a shift from Market Leninism down to political development and with more political reforms and more political changes. A second scenario is that we never move away from Market Leninism, so I call it continued Market Leninism. I would make a point that this concept of Market Leninism really was put forward by, I guess it's on the previous slide. Right here. Nick Kristof in an article way back in the New York Times in 1993, he put forward this concept of Market Leninism. So here we are, Continued Market Leninism. And that China's stable and continues without much change, without much reform going on for the next 10, 15, 20 years maybe. And then a third scenario is the collapse. And here it's not within this two by two table, it's really external to that because under this scenario the CCP would no longer be part of the system.