Hi, we're now going to take a look at what the future holds for New Jersey's weather and climate. And let's cut right to the chase, New Jersey has an interesting climate future ahead of it. There's all evidence that we're going to see temperatures in continue to increase precipitation hold steady or continue to increase. And if you remember in earlier slides, we saw that there's been an upward swing of both. So status quo in terms of that upward swing continuing, particularly for temperatures potentially for precipitation. We don't see it necessarily going down for precipitation, but we might even continue to see more. And with more energy in the climate system, warmer oceans, warmer atmosphere, more moisture in the atmosphere. We can expect to see increasing variability and extremes things were already beginning to see occur in terms of storms, flooding, drought, heat, they may say flooding and drought. Yeah with that moisture atmosphere when it rains, it pours as we talked about earlier. But if we don't have that trigger to get the moisture out of the atmosphere, the sun can shine and it can desiccate the ground and with that, you can dry out the atmosphere and result in a period of quick hitting drought until a trigger comes along to end that dry spell. So more extremes, more variability expected in the future and the rising of the seas which we've seen for the last century at least, is expected to continue. So that's just the overview, let's get into a few more specifics. But first want to back off for just a second and say, well, how how are we projecting this? What do we know about, is this just guessing? No, it's not guessing. We're looking at climate models, sophisticated numerical models of the physics of the atmosphere where in which we then change the amount of carbon dioxide and dust and other things in the atmosphere and look at what it tells us the future is going to bring these models already do a good job at showing what's occurred in the last century. Now we turn the dials in different directions to project what the future holds. it's a cloudy crystal ball if you will. But it's our these models are our eyes into the future. So with that models that look at the atmosphere, the land surface and the oceans, what do they suggest? And give us some numbers of where we may see things head? And this figure on the left side of it shows you where the temperatures have gone in New Jersey over the last century or so and the colorful time series. If you will, to the right suggest possible temperature changes, projected temperature changes with high emissions and low emissions. What's meant by that, That means whether we continue to put a lot of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere or re reduce the number of greenhouse gasses using less energy using green energy. And that's why it's hard to put a number on where the temperatures are going to go this century. And that's because you and I are going to impart dictate that on how well we do in cleaning up or reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. But you can see with a range of estimates, a change of 4-6° even with a low emission scenario and upwards Of 8-10 in the middle range of a high emission scenario. Now, we've already made a little bit of progress. So this may be shooting a little higher than we think it's going to go. But this green areas certainly within the realm of possibility, continued warming over the course of this century. What about sea level rise? I should add precipitation. We're not exactly sure how much it's going to increase Or not. but we feel it could increase five or 10%. Probably not more than that. but it is still expected to probably increase in New Jersey in the mid atlantic states. Now, sea level projections from a study just several years ago suggests by the end of this century and notice that this Figure goes all the way up to 21:50. but by the end of this century, A 3-foot rise in sea Level has a 50% chance of happening on the low end. It could be as little as a Couple of feet at the high end of only about a 5% chance it could be six or seven ft, but suffice it to say, an increase in an amplification of the pace of sea level change as we go through the remainder of, of this century. And with that, a look back at this nuisance or sunny day flooding. One more time, we've looked at this figure earlier, that's this part of the figure. Now, the projections are that as the sea level continues to rise inches and feet with an intermediate to low emission scenario, by the end of this century, two out of three days might be seeing this sunny day flooding and with a high emissions, an intermediate emission, not even the highest emissions scenario, it'll be almost a daily occurrence by the last couple of decades of the century. So, roadways, docks and all flooded several times a day at high tide, maybe even in between high tides as we get later in the century, not associated with storms, nor'easters and tropical systems, but just from the fact that sea level is high enough that at high tide, it's going to be getting to levels near sea level today that are going to be often below sea level in the future. Now, how will these changes impact New Jersey. this is from a report put out just recently by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and there's a number of sectors that are going to feel the impacts of this change. socially vulnerable populations. Next slide, we'll talk about that briefly infrastructure, our roadways, our buildings, our bridges are train tracks, our airports which sit near sea level. all feeling the effects of climate change, health and well being warmer, more stagnant air health issues, there more vector borne diseases being able to survive in a warmer moisture climate. Then we've traditionally experienced here in New Jersey, get to a few more in a minute, but I want to get back to the socially vulnerable populations for a moment and I think this does begin to illustrate that this is something the map to the left is from the Rutgers New Jersey Weather network taken on an evening in july a decade ago. And it shows in the orange areas the daytime heat has been slow to evacuate. That area has been much warmer during the Day, but the the urban areas were only down to upper 70s to around 80 by late evening. Whereas in the hinterlands, if you will, Temperatures were in the 60s and 70s. And it just so happens that this map on the right is the density of population. The population density map, and you can see how very closely it aligns with where the warmth is, except perhaps right along the coast, which is a whole different climate regime. But you look to the Northeast and the southwest and you can see the higher densities of population with that overnight warmth being held in there and that's a big concern by the socially vulnerable who may live in those areas, who do live in those areas that may not be able to afford air conditioning that just don't get a break during warm summer days as we get into warm summer evenings. So this is something we have to be very attuned to as we look at climate change, that it's not going to affect our population statewide equally in some respects, we have to pay attention to those more socially vulnerable in urban areas. Now getting back to other impacts of climate change, we can talk about ecosystems and wildlife. We've already talked sea level a number of times with coastal communities. agriculture and food supply is going to be impacted by this future warming and changes in the precipitation regimes and such and then marine life where a coastal state rich marine environment and that's bound to be affected as well. So no one is going to escape. the the climate change that New Jersey is already experiencing and is destined to be amplified or accelerate in the decades ahead. So as we end this, I want to recommend this primer if you will a little over 50 pages that will tell you more than just a simple website about climate change on a global basis. but isn't as large as the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change Report, which is volumes. So this is a non partial pairing of the National Academy of Science Science is in the US and the Royal Society in the United Kingdom and I highly recommend this for a little bit more in depth study. Looking specifically to New Jersey Rutgers has a climate resource center and the Climate change Alliance. And I invite you to visit those websites to learn more. and then already mentioned one of the d e p reports of late. First they looked at how scientifically if you will looking at climate change and then looked at a strategy for how we're going to deal with this through mitigated and adaptive processes. And of course, when it comes to the end, you're absolutely welcome to contact me at David dot Robinson at Rutgers dot e d u. Or simply visit the state climate website NJ climate dot org. And that can link you to me as well. So I hope you've enjoyed this series of events of vignettes and and have enjoyed the overall course. As you've learned more about New Jersey's climate and climate change.
