So now we're going to build the tree. And to do this, I'm going to jump to Excel, do the whole thing in Excel. You are provided with the Excel to do this yourself, if you buy the Tree Plan software. Again, very, very inexpensive. Just Google TreePlan, you'll find the company that sells it. Student version I think is $17. So, we're going to start in cell D4, and we're going to say add or insert decision tree, we're going to put. We're going to start with decision, we're going to make two branches, try for Zoning Variance, dont try and then the try for zoning branch, we're going to put in 40 millions markers here. And then, etc., etc., etc. And I'll show you exactly how that works in the Excel. Let me jump over to spreadsheet. You see I've got my futures table here. I've got BuildTree here too, just so I can build this tree without messing up my template BuildTree here, sheet. So what am I going to do?, I'm going to put myself in D4 where it says start here. And I'm going to go up to add ins tree plan student version and say new tree. And so, it's made a decision node for me at T equals 0 with two alternatives. And my first alternative is to try for a variance. And down here, my other alternative is don't try, okay. And if I do try for a variance, I am going to have to put in 40,000 in 1,000 units commonly known as 40 million. If I don't try I'm done, so I don't want to mess around with this. This is what end-of-tree looks like for that branch, that little triangle, but if I do get the variance, now I've got this decision. So I'm going to go up there, put myself in that cell, and I'm going to go back to TreePlan, and I'm going to change this to an event node because I try for the variance. I may get it, I may not get it. So, the one outcome here is that the variance could be approved. And another outcome is that the variance could be not approved. And flipping back to the futures table, here they think they have a 70% of it being approved so I'll just put in 0.7 here. All of the probabilities have to add to 1 at this point so I'm just going to put 0.3 here. All right, so if the variance is not approved, here's another end. Okay, so we'll have an end if they don't try, we'll have an end if they try and the variance is not approved. And if the variance is approved, now they have another decision to make, they can sell the variance property, or they can develop it. Okay, so I put myself in M6, there on that triangle, and I go back to tree plan, and I say, I want to change this to a decision node, and that's put that in for me, and I'm going to say here, sell The variance property okay. And if they do that they get 60 million or in my thousands unit 60,000 and they can choose to develop down here. And if they develop they have to sync 200 million into this in my thousands unit 200,000. And so, those are their two choices. So, if they sell the variance property they're out this is the end. If they develop there can be a local market crash in Manhattan, or maybe not. So, we're going to go back here and we're going to put in an event note, because whether or not there's a market crash is completely beyond our control and so I'm going to put no market crash here. And they believe that's an 80% probability. I think I'm going to double check on that, and we put market crash here, this is would be it by the end of two years. If there is no market crash they get 300000 and if there is a market crash they get 150000 and my 1000 units here. And this probabilities better and up to 100%. Only two choices 80% and 20% gives me 100%, and let's just make sure I got that right. Yeah, 80%, 20%, $300 with no crash, $150 with a crash. So that's looking pretty good, and I think I've got everything included in this project without time value. All I want to do now is I want to put in the probabilities for all the paths that they could get to and put in zero probabilities to paths that we're discarding. And I want to check the software says that the EV of the project Down here is 9,000 or in our units is 9 million, so I want to check that and I want to know what this problem notice are. So, let's go ahead and do that, starting up here the software is telling us take branch two. Branch one is always on top and then it goes down. So, branch two is down here, so it's telling us not to take this path, so we're going to say the probability of getting there is zero. Now, what's the probability of getting to try for variance, variance approved, developed and no market crash? Our 60 million net cash that's going to be equal to the combined probabilities along the way which we can just multiply because they are independent across task. So, we have a 56% probability of getting there. Similarly, for a market crash, we follow this path where the variance gets approved times the market crash probability of 20%, or a 14% probability of winding up here and what's our probability of the variance not being approved, that's 30% and we put that here. And it's telling us down here we should go ahead and try us our probability of not trying Is 0 okay. So, let me sum up my probabilities they better add to 1 which they do 100%. And now let me check the expected value of this project and the way that works is I have my 20 thousand times 0% sixty thousand times 56% probability. See, this is just the way it did average plus -90000 times 40% probability and -40000 times a 30% probability here. So, how am I going to get that in Excel?, the way that you get this is where the function called Sum Product. So I say sum product of all of my crash results with all of my probabilities. And I get 9,000, so this is my easy project and this is my sum of prods here. So this is pretty good. I'm pretty happy about this result. It's looking like I have matched with the software it is telling me.