A very good evening to all of you. It's my pleasure to introduce to you the speakers for the evening. Today we have amongst us Ms. Samantha McCulloch. She's the Head of the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Technology Unit at the International Energy Agency. Mr. Jannik Linbaek. He's the Vice President and Head of EU Affairs at Equinor Brussels, and Mr. Francois Kalaydjian. He is the Director of Economics and Technology Intelligence at IFP. The first session for the evening is a panel discussion. Each speaker may speak for up to 10 minutes. I'll be indicating the time for the benefit of the speakers. Without further delay, I invite Ms. Samantha McCulloch to start off the first session for the evening. Ms. Samantha will be addressing the clean energy transition with a focus on carbon capture utilization and storage. Good evening everyone, and thank you so much for the opportunity to be here. I'm very pleased to talk to you about the role of CCS in clean energy transitions, and to share with you some of our analysis and scenario analysis around why we see CCS has been so critical in terms of meeting long-term climate goals. But first, I wanted to start with a bit of a reality check in terms of where we are today and where we're headed. You'd all be aware that the Paris Agreement calls for a peaking of global CO_2 emissions as soon as possible. The reality is that our CO_2 emissions from the energy sector, globally, continue to increase. They have been doing so for decades really only interrupted by significant economic disruptions such as the global financial crisis. These are the unique occasions where we've seen an interruption to the growth in the energy-related CO_2 emissions. The exception to that is during, I think, 2015 and 2017 where there was a pause in terms of growth in CO_2 emissions. Uniquely, this was still associated with global economic growth. However, in 2017, we saw emissions increase by more than one percent. Our preliminary analysis from the IEA suggest that emissions will again increase in 2018. Importantly, this includes emission increases from advanced economies, not just from emerging economies. So there is a significant challenge ahead of us in terms of getting where we need to go and starting to peak global emissions, while still, of course, providing energy access, energy security, and meeting other economic objectives. At the IEA, we do analysis of a range of clean energy technologies. I just wanted to start out the discussion with CCS to recognize that actually of 38 technologies that the IEA assesses against our scenarios, in terms of where they would need to be, only four are actually on track, and that's solar PV, electric vehicles, lighting, and datacenter energy management. The progress that we've seen in these areas really can't make up for the lack of progress in other technology areas. CCS in industry and CCS in power, areas that are worthily off track in terms of where we would need to be by 2030. But, of course, they're not alone in terms of these technologies. So introducing two of our long-term scenarios. This highlights just how the scale of the challenge ahead. So we first model what we call the reference technology scenario, which looks at existing and planned or commitments made in terms of energy policies and climate policies, and that includes the nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. You can see from the line there that this does not see emissions falling. To be consistent with a two-degree scenario, we would need to see an overall decreasing emissions of around 760 gigatons in the period to 2060. Now, this is more than 20 years of emissions of a current annual rates. It's quite a significant task, and achieving that does require a mix of technologies. So leading the charge is really renewables and energy efficiency, but CCS also plays a very significant role and it accounts for around 14 percent of those cumulative emissions reductions that are needed to achieve a two-degree scenario. If we push the technologies further and faster, and tried to achieve a net zero emissions from the energy sector by 2060, what would this mean? You can see that the role of CCS increases exponentially, really. Energy efficiency is still very, very important. But the role of CCS increases to around 32 percent. This really reflects greater role in industry and also in supporting negative emissions, if we are to achieve net zero. Just to illustrate this a bit more. This is the emissions that are left over or the remaining emissions from a two-degree scenario. So you can see we've virtually decarbonized the power sector, and the key sectors that we need to then focus on in terms of emissions relate to industry and transport, and CCS is one of the few technologies that we have that decarbonization in industrial sectors particularly cement, steel, chemical production. When we look at the change for a below two-degree or beyond two-degree scenario, you can see the role of CCS, not only supporting those negative emissions, those under the line, from fuel transformation and the power sector, but also in significantly reducing emissions from industry. Now, achieving this will require a very significant scale-up of carbon capture and storage from where we are today. So we have made progress with CCS, but it's frankly, insufficient in terms of where we would need it to be. It's around 32 million tons of CO_2 being captured today from large-scale plants. But this would need to increase by an order of magnitude for a two-degree or a beyond two-degree scenario. While this would definitely require a global effort, two of the key regions that we look at in terms of CCS is really China and the US. In the period to 2030, China and the US account for around half of the CCS deployment. Beyond 2030, they account for around a third. This really reflects lower-cost opportunities in these regions in industry, but also a very significant coal fleet in China. I want to touch on some of the investment and support for CCS that we've seen over the past decade. So in the period around 2009-2010, globally, governments pledged more than $30 billion in support for large-scale CCS projects. But ultimately, less than 15 percent of this funding that was announced has actually been spent on projects. There's number of reasons for this. I think in some cases, less than optimal program design. In some cases, the projects themselves were more challenging than what had been anticipated, or time frames imposed on projects that was simply not able to be met. But the ultimate outcome of this is that in the past decade, globally, the level of funding or support received by CCS projects is less than three percent of the subsidies provided to renewable energy in 2016 alone. This is really reflected in investment plans. So this chart shows the number of large-scale projects that have been proposed under development since 2010. You can see it's fallen from a peak of 77 plants in 2010. But if we want to take some encouragement, in 2018, we're seeing an upturn in investment, in the number of projects that are under development. This is really being led by China. Also, there's a new tax credit that has been announced in the US to support CO_2 storage and CO_2 use, and we're seeing this generate a lot of interests and new project proposals. We, at the IEA, see that this could deliver a quite significant potential for new projects in the coming three to four years. Finally, I just wanted to highlight that the IEA is committed to supporting our members and association member countries, as well as industry in terms of navigating the clean energy transition and ensuring that there is recognition of the important role of CCS as part of this. Something that we did recently was hold what was, essentially, an unprecedented meeting of ministers, and CEOs, and the finance community at a summit in Edinburgh in November last year. As part of this meeting, a number of priorities were identified to really kick start CCS investment and support a rapid and urgent scale-up of investment. That included looking at lower cost to CCS opportunities. There are industrial opportunities for CCS investment that, where there is a relatively pure stream of CO_2 as part of the process, was relatively low cost to capture when that can be combined with something like EOA. It's very close to being commercial. Some of these opportunities really need to be harnessed in the near term. We think there's opportunities through these cost of CCS through better business models. This does include looking at shared transport and storage infrastructure, looking at linkages with hydrogen. Also looking at new opportunities to use the CO_2, so CO_2 utilization. Policy frameworks for investment certainty remain essential including CCS in long-term climate planning from a government perspective can really provide, I guess, say a, some indication to industry of government plans in terms of CCS development. Identifying and developing bankable CO_2 storage is essential to underpin investment in the transport infrastructure and in capture facilities. As I also mentioned, looking at new opportunities to generate value from CO_2. So the IEA is also supporting some of the global partnerships between governments and industry on this issue, recognizing that no single government, no single industry can really address all of the challenges associated with CCS on their own. So with that, thank you.
