We can think of five different stories that may bring about a decline in oil demand. The first three are based on an increase in prices for different reasons. The first reason might be that the producing countries, the exporting countries limit deliberately their production in order to increase prices. This is something that they have been doing at different times, and they may continue or insist, or even increase this tendency to limit supply in order to maintain higher prices. This is a policy that has a chance to succeed in the short term because prices will be higher. But in the longer term, it has the consequences of discouraging demand. Consumers will become convinced that oil is more expensive and will never become cheaper again, and therefore, they will move to diversify away from oil. This is what people call demand destruction. If there is demand destruction, then it is possible that we have a peak in oil demand. A second possibility is that international oil companies may become discouraged about the future so to speak. They may become convinced that there is no future in investing in oil because oil demand needs to peak and needs to decline. So because of their belief that the climate change targets will be achieved, they may, in fact, limit their investment. This is what they are expected to do by many people. There are environmental lobbies, ethical investor lobbies that are exercising pressure on the international oil companies to unilaterally limit their investment in exploration and production of oil because the use of oil must decline. If the international oil companies do this, then the supply of oil will, obviously, be equal decline or be less abundant, and this will bring about higher costs for oil, higher prices for oil, and demand subsequently may be, so to speak, forced to decline. A third possibility is that governments intervene and impose a carbon price either through a carbon tax, as we have discussed already, or an emission trading system. In one way or another, they may intervene and increase the price of oil through this mechanism. In fact, the imposition of a carbon price would not affect oil first and foremost. It would rather affect coal much more than oil. Oil is not very severely affected by the introduction of a carbon price. But nevertheless, we may assume that carbon price high enough is imposed, and therefore, the cost of oil is increased and consumers decide to shift away from oil and demand less of it. So we have three stories based on higher prices, either because of action from the producers, or action from the companies in action from the company's failure to invest, or finally, because of action from the government and the imposition of a carbon price. In all these three scenarios, it's price that drives a decline in demand. Then, there is another scenario which could be based on technological change. This is what some people call a Kodak moment for the oil industry. It refers to Kodak which used to produce films and when digital cameras emerged people were taking pictures and are taking pictures, many more pictures than they used to take in the past, but they need no film. So Kodak has lost the market, not because the field was too expensive, but because something new has come to the fore, a new technology which is just simply superior to the previous one. It's much more convenient and so there is no competition. People believe that the advent of electric cars may cause a Kodak moment because they believed that electric cars are absolutely superior to internal combustion engine cars. The International Energy Agency has explored this possibility. While in the New Policies Scenario, they have an assumption that by 2040, there will be 300 million electric vehicles on the road on a total of approximately two billion cars worldwide. They have an alternative scenario called the future is electric, in which they assume that a billion or more cars will be electric. So slightly more than 50 percent of the total car fleet in circulation by 2040 will be electric. It is indeed very difficult to imagine how this could come about because the difficulty of producing this number of cars and the speed of penetration would be astounding. But let's assume that this may happen. What is interesting is that the conclusion of the International Energy Agency is that, even in this case, we would not really have much of a peak in oil demand. We would have rather stagnation. There is a difference with respect to the other scenario and, of course, this difference would become wider more important down the road. But nevertheless, oil demand would hardly be even in this scenario envisaging, so to speak, a Kodak moment for car transportation. The final possibility is that governments, at least some governments, step in and limit oil demand through a variety of possible administrative measures. Stuff like imposing that from a certain date on, only electric vehicles will be allowed to be sold, and possibly even from a certain date on, only electric vehicles will be allowed to circulate. Such impositions, non-market mechanisms, but administrative measures would certainly necessarily cause a decline in oil demand at least in the transportation sector. But if all other things are equal, this would cause a decline in price as well. If not all governments share the same policies, which is highly likely because not all governments will follow this path, then they'll lower prices of oil will encourage higher demand elsewhere in the world. So it is not clear that even through the imposition of administrative measures, oil demand might be expected to peak. It depends on how many countries, how many administrations would follow this line of behavior. So the conclusion is that it is really difficult to come up with a convincing narrative, envisaging in oil demand peak before 2040. After 2040, I do not dare to discuss because technological progress may change the situation again, and so it is not to be denied that there is a possibility of demand peaking after 2040. But in the meantime, it is likely that investment in low cost and especially low carbon oil resources is likely to remain profitable. So people will be attracted to investing in exploration and production for oil if the cost of producing is low. Also, it is possible that prices will be above marginal costs, so profit will be made in producing oil.