[MUSIC] In this unit we are going to look at the evolution of oil production, as coming out of Conventional or non-conventional resources in the extent to which non-conventional resources will substitute for conventional resources in the coming years. We start from a consideration of conventional resources, so the first slide that you are seeing Shows the ultimately recoverable conventional crude oil resources. And the cumulative production that we expect in the new policies scenario, that the International Energy Agency expects in the new policies scenario. Which as you might remember is the central scenario. As you can see on the left hand side of the chart, we have an estimate of ultimately recoverable conventional resources. Some of that is already produced. That's the blue section of the bar, which is, of the color, which is. Below the zero line, it means that this is gone already, it's been produced, and then there is a section above the zero line, and that is the known recoverable resource, and reserve growth is a second component in green. Which means that these are resources that we don't yet estimate to be there, but on the basis of past experience, we expect that our estimate of known. Recoverable resources will increase and will therefore increase to that level, and our knowledge of our estimate of reserves will increase to the level indicated by the green bar. And finally, there is a portion of the bar, which is the purple portion Which is labeled Undiscovered, this means that we believe that those resources exist, but we have not discovered them yet, so we need to engage in exploration in order to discover them. Now, this total is categorized differently in the central part of the part. It's divided between Onshore, Offshore, And deep water in arctic, so the onshore portion remains the most important. Most of our known recoverable resources are on shore, but offshore is also important and increasingly we are discovering oil in deep waters, and we also expect to make discoveries in the Arctic. The final section of the graph to the right indicates the extent of production that is required to satisfy demand from tomorrow until 2035. As you can see, this is significant, the amount of oil which will run down in the coming 20 years, but it's well short of the total of ultimately recoverable conventional resources. The next slide gives us a view of the composition of recoverable oil resources in different countries or in different regions. And it shows that there is a major difference in between the situation in different regions. So, if we look at the Middle East, the majority of recoverable resources there consist of proven and conventional oil resources. So most of it is proven, so we already know that we will be able to produce or almost certain that we will be able to produce out of known deposits. And what is not proven is, in any case, conventional oil, so this is easy oil, cheap oil that we can produce under all economic conditions. In contrast, if you look at North America, you can see that the total estimate of recoverable resources is even larger than in the Middle East. But a large part of it consists of what is represented in dark gray, which is extra heavy oil and bitumen in what is represented in light gray, which is. These are difficult resources, resources out of which oil can be produced but at a high cost and after a very heavy investment so we cannot be sure. The next slide gives us a detail of the composition of production by type in the new policy scenarios over the coming 20 years. And what you can see here is the fact that existing oil fields will contribute less and less to global oil production. This is because oil fields always experience a natural decline, production always naturally declines from a field. And so fields are being exploited today will not be able to produce the same amount of oil over the next years, in the next two decades. So, the contribution to the total, which is represented in the dark green section of the columns is quickly declining. What is represented in light green portion of the columns is reserves that are yet to be developed. It means that we need to sink more investment into developing these reserves in order to make sure that we can produce out of them. And then there is the gold part of the bars. And that is results that are yet to be found. We actually have not yet found those results. We need to engage in exploration in order to find them. Then we have enhanced oil recovery that this utilization of more advanced methods to increase the rate of recovery out of non fields. We have the contribution of natural gas, liquids and finally we have the contribution of light tight oil. As you can see the contribution of light tight oil or shell oil to total global oil production is not so large, it's rather marginal in the context. So that shows that we cannot rest, we cannot simply produce out of existing fields and be happy with that. We need to constantly work, explore for more and develop more and find more in order to be able to satisfy demand from now to 2035, but we believe that this is possible. And on the basis of past experience we believe that there is resources out there to be found to satisfy demand. [MUSIC]