Welcome back. In this video, we're going to get into a post pandemic mindset. What exactly is post pandemic mindset? The best way I know how to explain it, is with this chart. If you were to look at the data represented by this chart starting with where the red arrow is pointing, it would look like there's a huge drop happening in whatever this chart is tracking. From this first data point to the next there's a steep decline. But as you keep looking at the data, it's not actually clear what's going on. The data is noisy. Up down, up down, big drops, big rises. It's pretty much impossible to make sense of what's happening if you're zoomed in too close. But if you pull back and take a longer view, it's obvious what's happening. The direction of change is clear. At the Institute for the Future, we say that it's virtually impossible to predict what will happen in the very short term. But it's much easier if you zoom out to see where we are likely to be headed in the long run. During times of crisis, this zoom in, zoom out effect is magnified. It's actually easier to predict how the world will be different five years from now than it is to predict how the world would be different five days from now because there's just too much noise and chaos in the present. A post pandemic mindset means getting free of the noise of the day to day and week to week changes in what's going on with COVID-19? Is this open? Is it closed? Is it safe to do? Is it risky to do? What's the latest mutation? What's latest headline? We're going to zoom out from all of that and look instead at the bigger picture and the longer term trends this pandemic is creating. We're not going to talk about tomorrow or next month. If we did that, this course would be obsolete before we even got started. Instead, we're going to take a post pandemic view. We're going to zoom out like a satellite in space. We're going to be looking at the risks and opportunities of the next three to five years. A much bigger window where you'll have more room to shape and influence how the future turns out. There are lots of unknowns about COVID-19 that we are not going to be able to answer in this course. Learning how to coexist comfortably with these unknowns is a big part of getting into a post pandemic mindset. These unknowns are, how fast will we all get vaccinated? Will new variants cause reinfections and decrease vaccine efficacy? Will vaccine hesitancy or inequity of vaccine distribution lead to even more mutations and more contagious or dangerous variants? When exactly will all the restrictions end where I am and Life go back to normal? Will the virus go away? Or are we going to live with it forever? These are uncertainties that we're all just going to have to become comfortable living with for a while and zooming out a few years into the future can help us do that. At the same time, there are also some important knowns. We know that studies show that economic recovery from disease outbreaks historically takes 10-40 years. We're going to be working through the impacts of COVID-19 for a while. We know that grief over lost opportunities and loved ones will change the emotional landscape over the next decade. We won't just get over it and move on from COVID-19. We know that habits learned in lock down may last a lifetime. Previous generations have been permanently changed by crises like The Great Depression. This will hold true for COVID-19 as well. We know that COVID-19 is not the last pandemic we will experience. Experts predict more. We need to make sense of what has happened so we can be better prepared for the next one. Most of all, we know that in the next 3-5 years, there will be more opportunity for transformative change and global collaboration than perhaps any moment in human history. We have seen more concentrated human effort to solve a single problem than has literally ever happened before. People are ready to do something big. To use this moment of unprecedented disruption to rethink, and reinvent our lives and our society for the better. These knowns can help ground us in a new longer term post pandemic mindset. Now I'd like to get a sense of your current mindset when it comes to thinking about the pandemic. Let's go ahead and answer a few poll questions. You'll see them appear right in front of you on the screen. Thank you for answering that question. One thing I want you to know is that, this course will help you see both sides of the future. They're risks that makes sense to worry about, and also the opportunities that make sense to feel optimistic about. At the Institute for the Future, we call this using your positive and shadow imagination. It can help you be more balanced in your mindset and more resilient in your planning as you prepare for what's next. This course will definitely give you the opportunity to use both positive and shadow imagination. Cultivating this balance is an important part of developing a post pandemic mindset. Next question. Thank you. In this course, I can let you know we are definitely going to focus on the rethink and the re-invent. Why rethink and re-invent? Well, it's easy to prepare for features that are similar to today. It's the weird stuff that catches us off guard. It's important to spend time getting ready for the futures that are stranger and different. We also want to take advantage of this moment to create real and lasting change. We may never have this opportunity again in our lifetime to really transform how we live. We need to use this moment strategically and creatively. I have one more question for you. Well, that's the crucial question, my biggest hope for you as a learner is that taking this course will improve your score on that question. How much control or influence do you have to affect how our post pandemic reality turns out? My goal is to move you up at least plus 1 if not plus 2, plus 3, or more in response to that question. All of the assignments in this course are designed to help you find ways to take action today. To help you find your power to shape the post pandemic future. This course isn't just about seeing the future, it's about acting to make the future. Keep whatever number you've answered in mind, and at the end of the course, let's see if it is increased by at least plus 1. If you add all three of these many mindsets up using both positive and shadow imagination, focusing on the opportunity to rethink and re-invent and looking for actionable ways to increase your ability to shape the future by at least plus 1, you get what I believe will be the biggest takeaway you'll have from adopting a post pandemic mindset. It's what I call urgent optimism. Urgent optimism is a balanced feeling. It's recognizing that, yes, there are great challenges and risks ahead, and staying realistically hopeful at the same time that you have something to contribute to how we solve those challenges and face those risks. Urgent optimism means you're not staying awake all night, worrying about what might happen. You're leaping out of bed in the morning with a fire in your pan, so do something about it. Urgent optimism is knowing that you have agency and you have the ability using your unique talents and skills and life experiences to create what's on the other side of the door when we finally open up and move from our current pandemic reality into our new post pandemic lives. Speaking of doors, you may have noticed that the image for this course is a door. Let's take a closer look at that image. I really like this image for thinking about our post pandemic future. Over the past year plus, we've all felt locked up in one way or another. We've been living smaller lives, we've stayed inside, we've stayed apart, we've put ourselves underneath all this personal protective equipment. But now, there's this energy. We're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. We're feeling ready to open that door and to find out what's on the other side. But here's the thing, we're not going to just open the door and find out what's waiting for us out there in our new post COVID lives. We're going to help make that new world. What a momentous moment this is for all of us, and I'm glad you're here. It means you're ready to prepare your mind and really rise to this historic occasion. I hope this video has helped you get into your post pandemic mindset. Next, I'm going to help you understand a little bit more about how we create our future forecasts at the Institute for the Future, and I'll share with you our track record on forecasting pandemics. I'll also tell you a story with some behind the scene details of my life and career as a professional futurist. I'll see you for all of that in the next video.
