0:05
Demographic changes continued to undermine the Christian communities, while
the system preferring the now nonexistent Christian majority remained unchanged,
much to the disaffection of the Muslim community, both Sunni and Shiite.
The Palestinian refugee population, which had arrived in Lebanon in 1948.
At that time, some 150,000,
whose numbers steadily increased with time to over 300,000.
And who were kept in refugee camps and were not integrated into the Lebanese
population, contributed further to the destabilization of the Lebanese system.
In the late 1960s, Palestinian armed groups concentrated
in Lebanon's refugee camps and established basis of operations
against Israel in Southern Lebanon leading in turn to Israeli,
Israeli retaliation strikes against targets in Lebanon.
After the civil war in Jordan, in 1970, 71, and
the consequent expulsion of Palestinian fighting forces from there, Lebanon became
the Palestinian's sole semi-autonomous base of operations against Israel.
[SOUND] This created internal Lebanese tensions.
Between the Sunnis, who prefer to see Lebanon as an Arab state,
deeply committed to the conflict with Israel,
and therefore supportive of the Palestinian struggle waged from Lebanon.
As opposed to the Maronites, who saw Lebanon as a Christian-dominated,
pro-Western state that had no real interest in the fight with Israel.
[SOUND] Thus, a combination of domestic tensions and external factors contributed
to the eventual outbreak of civil war, yet again, in Lebanon.
In April 1975, clashes erupted between Palestinian forces and
the Maronite, Phalange militia which rapidly degenerated into
a more general conflict between Christians and Muslims.
The Lebanese army could not be counted on to restore order.
The Lebanese army collapsed as many of its men joined the rival forces in
the civil war according to their respective sectarian origins.
[SOUND] Syria however, was now strong and stable under Hafiz Asad.
And it was Syrian intervention that brought the first phase of the war to its
conclusion.
2:38
More surprisingly, Syria intervened in May 1976 on behalf of the Christians,
who were facing defeat by the Palestinians and the radical Sunni Muslim alliance.
After all, Syria as a radical state in the conflict with Israel,
could be expected to side with the Palestinians against the Maronites.
But in May 1976, the Syrians did precisely the opposite.
[SOUND] Syria took advantage of the war to enhance its regional clout and
prestige by assuming virtual control of Lebanon.
Syria was presumably also concerned that a radical takeover of Lebanon
would expose Syria to possible war with Israel at a time not of Syria's choosing.
Syria could hardly allow the Palestinians in Lebanon the leeway to make
decisions that could have far reaching effect on Syria's national security.
[SOUND] As a result of the civil war, Lebanon was now
informally divided into its various sectarian strongholds.
The Maronites, under the leadership of Bashir al-Jumayyil,
sought to reassert Maronite supremacy in an alliance with Israel.
4:14
Israel also sought to revive Maronite supremacy in Lebanon.
And seem to be achieving its objectives when Bashir al-Jumayyil was elected
president in August 1982 as Israel occupied Beirut.
[SOUND] The bulk of the Palestinian fighting forces were compelled
to withdraw from Lebanon in early September, to be dispersed in
various distant Arab states and Israel seemed to be having its way.
But Syria would not let that be.
5:19
Bashir al-Jumayyil was replaced by his brother Amin as president of Lebanon.
But Amin and Bashir, though brothers,
were similar in their divergent outlooks to Bishara al-Khuri and
Emile Edde of the 1930s and the 1940s.
[SOUND] Amin Jumayyil, like Bishara al-Khuri before him,
believed in the securing of the Maronites in an agreement with the Arab world,
which in the new circumstances meant subservience to Syria.
Bishir had sought an alliance with Israel,
which replaced France as had been the case in Edde's formula of old.
6:02
But the assassination of Bashir, and the massacre in Sabra and
Shatila had emptied the Maronite Israeli alliance of any practical content.
[SOUND] Israel wanted no more to do with Lebanese domestic affairs, and
restricted its interest in Lebanon to the defense of its northern border.
Israel therefore withdrew from Lebanon in 1985,
except from a narrow security zone in the south.
And it finally withdrew from there too in 2000.
In the meantime, as the Maronites continued their political decline,
the Shiites shifted from the periphery to the center of Lebanese politics.
[SOUND] Syria was now the hegemonic power in most of Lebanon
until it finally withdrew its forces in 2005.
Socioeconomic developments of the 1050s and
the 1960s led many Shih's to migrate from their traditional locations in the South.
And in the Boecker that is Eastern Lebanon to the capital of Beirut.
Their rate of natural increase outstripped that of other communities, and
they displaced the Maronites as the most populous community in the country.
[SOUND] By the mid 1970s, all Christians, Maronites and
other Christian minorities, were hardly 40% of the total.
And under the charismatic leadership, in the 1960s and 1970s,
of the Shiite cleric, Imam Musa al-Sadr, the community became considerably
more assertive in demanding their fair share of the Lebanese pie,
in accordance with their increasing demographic weight.
[SOUND] The civil war further enhanced Shi'ite political assertiveness,
as they formed their own militia's, first Amal, and then Hizballah.
Which became the major Shi'ite force, politically and militarily in the 1980s.
In April 1985, the Shiites took over West Beirut, thus physically
cementing their growing power at the very center of Lebanese politics.
8:15
The civil war finally came to an end in 1989 with the signing of the Ta'if Accord.
Ta'if, that is, the city in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia and other Arab States
were those who gave their auspices to the new agreement on peace in Lebanon.
The Ta'if Accords formalized the ascendance of the Shi'ites.
In the 1943 national pact, they were only third in line, as we remember.
And received the crowns left to them by the Maronites and the Sunnis.
8:47
But now, they were formally underpowered by the Maronites and the Sunnis.
And that was only formally, because in fact,
they were the most powerful community in Lebanon.
Both demographically and politically.
Backed by the punch of their armed militia.
For which the Lebanese army is no match and for
which no other community had any answer.
And to that, one must of course add,
Syria's managing influence over Lebanese politics at the time.
[SOUND] Christian dominated Lebanon, under the hegemony of the Maronites,
as established in greater Lebanon of 1920, does not exist any longer.
If the quest, if the question once was, is Lebanon an Arab state or
a Christian dominated pro-Western country.
The question now is, is Lebanon still part of the Sunni Arab world?
Or is it becoming a client or an outpost of non-Arab, Shiite Iran?
Thanks to the preeminence of Hezbollah and the Shiites in Lebanese politics.
Professor Asher SusserSenior Research Fellow
