8.1.1 The October Surprise - Part 1

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The Emergence of the Modern Middle East - Part II

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Tel Aviv University

The Emergence of the Modern Middle East - Part II

264 ratings

This course will discuss the developments in the Middle East from the early 20th century to the present. It will discuss the rise and retreat of Arab nationalism, the problems of internal cohesion of the Arab states, issues of religion and state, and the evolution of Islamist politics. It will also focus on the evolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict and its impact on the region and will conclude with an in depth analysis of the “Arab Spring” by placing these contemporary revolutionary events in their historical context. Please note that this course builds upon a previous course - The Emergence of the Modern Middle East - Part I (https://www.coursera.org/learn/modern-middle-east-1/home/welcome) Learn about the history of the Middle East for a deeper understanding of current regional developments!

From the lesson

WEEK 4

The escalation and de-escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict from 1973 to the present

8.1.1 The October Surprise - Part 16:16

8.1.2 The October Surprise - Part 24:33

8.2.1 The Egyptian-Israeli Peace - Part 16:43

8.2.2 The Egyptian-Israeli Peace - Part 26:23

8.3 The PLO and the 1982 War in Lebanon3:45

8.4.1 The First Palestinian Intifada - Part 15:11

8.4.2 The First Palestinian Intifada - Part 26:15

8.5.1 The Oslo Accords - Part 17:17

8.5.2 The Oslo Accords - Part 28:49

8.6 The Jordanian-Israeli Peace6:56

8.7.1 Camp David, 2000 - Part 16:46

8.7.2 Camp David, 2000 - Part 26:55

8.8 Unilateral Disengagement and Further Negotiations10:31

Meet the Instructors

Professor Asher Susser
Senior Research Fellow
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies

Welcome to lesson number eight in our course on the emergence of the modern

Middle East.

The escalation and the de-escalation of the Arab Israeli conflict, now part two.

On the sixth of October 1973, Egypt and Syria waged a surprise attack on Israel.

This, the October war, known also as the Yom Kippur war

because of its outbreak on the holiest of holy days in the Jewish calendar.

Syria and Egypt caught Israel completely unprepared.

The Israelis had operated under what came to be known

as the Preconception that the Arab states would not attack Israel

unless they had an answer to Israel's power and supremacy.

The belief was that the Arabs could not win the war against Israel in such

circumstances and therefore would not launch a war that they were bound to lose.

But it wasn't only the preconception,

it was also the deliberate deception that was waged by Egypt and Syria

in misleading Israel into the comfortable belief that war was not in the offing.

Preparations for war were deliberately disguised as maneuvers time and

again and the Israelis were lulled into a sense of satisfaction

that the situation of no war and no peace would last for much longer.

When the Israelis discovered at the very last moment

that war was about to begin within a matter of hours.

Israel decided not to preempt as it might have done in previous years.

The Israeli decision not to preempt was for

a number of reasons, one of them, that Israel was bound to be

condemned internationally as the aggressor if it were to attack the Egyptians and

the Syrians, seemingly without any obvious reason.

Second was the self-confidence and the hubris

of the post 1967 that is that Israel could manage the Arab attack anyway.

It wouldn't take very much to push the Syrians back and

to push the Egyptians back over the canal if they dared to cross.

And yet another explanation was that preemption which was so necessary

when Israel was very small Israel in the pre 67 era was no longer that necessary.

There was the huge buffer of the Sinai Peninsula between the Suez Canal and

the Israel's major cities and therefore Israel was much safer and

could take the risk of not preempting.

In the first few days of the war there was unprecedented Arab Military success.

On the Egyptian front, and on the Syrian front,

the Arab forces broke through the Israeli lines that were very sparsely defended.

On the Egyptian front, two entire Egyptian armies, the second army

on the northern section of the Suez Canal and the third army on the southern section

of the Suez Canal crossed over smashed through the Israeli positions and

established themselves on the Israeli side of the Suez Canal.

On the Syrian front, on the northern part of the Golan,

the Israelis actually stood fast.

But very quickly the Syrians broke thru the Israeli lines in the southern part of

the Golan, and almost reached the Israeli Sea of Galilee.

What was the Arab objective?

The Egyptians had a limited objective in mind, and that is to create

a new political situation as a result of a successful military operation that

would force Israel back to the negotiating table about the withdrawal from Sinai.

The Syrians, however, didn't have diplomacy in mind but

sought to recover the Golan Heights and maybe even to break into the Israeli

territory of the Galilee if they were indeed successful enough.

So the Syrians and the Egyptians never really shared their objectives.

The Egyptians were actually cooperating with the Syrians

to achieve an objective that the Syrians didn't really share.

Even though the Israelis were caught completely by surprised,

it didn't take very long for them to turn the tables in the war.

First on they Syrian front, where after a few days,

they began to push the Syrians out of the Golan Heights completely and

not only that, but on the northern sector of the Golan, actually to penetrate into

Syrian territory, it's significantly on the road towards Damascus.

On the Egyptian front, over after about ten days,

the Israelis were in a position to cross the canal on to the Egyptian side and

to successfully encircle the Egyptian 3rd Army and

bring about a situation where Israel was actually 101 kilometers only from Cairo.

So when it appeared as if the Israelis were about to establish yet

another victory the superpowers, both of them, the U.S.

and the Soviet Union intervened to bring about a ceasefire which established

the Security Council Resolution 338 on the 22nd

of October bringing the war essentially to an end.

Fighting continued for another day or two but the war essentially was over.

Israel has suffered huge losses, hundreds of Israeli soldiers were taken

prisoner by the Egyptians and the Israelis were severely

shocked out of their euphoric mood that they enjoyed since 1967.

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