Now that you have some idea of March's logics, and passing references to culture, coalitions, and anarchic decision environments, we can turn to Allison's study of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Why the Cuban Missile Crisis? It's clearly a policy environment. But it has lots of nice qualities applicable to non-profits and government organizations. In fact, crisis management is common in many organizations. And in many instances, the stakes of policies and decisions are enormous. Take, for example, the United States we have no child left behind as this massive policy effort in education. That creates crises in schools, and whether they get money. Take for example harassment and grievance claims within organizations. Suicides and deaths within organizations. And In these circumstances what do you do? How can you describe what happened, and how people reacted, and whether people followed some kind of reasonable procedure? How can we successfully manage in those situations? And here we have kind of a wonderful example of a Cuban Missile Crisis. That's been well laid out by grandma Allison for the rest to begin this kind of conversation. The Cuban Missile Crisis was huge event. It was argue to play that closes will came to World War 3 where moreover a 100 million could have died. In fact John Kennedy, the president at the time of the United States is quoted as estimating the chance of failure in that event as one in three or even one in two. It's a little too close for comfort, for most of us. Because of this, analysts want to understand how national governments and their organizations maneuver crises. They want to get a better sense for how to prevent disasters in the future. Because of this, analysts want to understand how national governments and their organizations maneuver crises. Let me give a brief summary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, in case anyone is unfamiliar with it. The events that we are going to discuss occurred back in 1962 and it led the United States to be in its highest state of war readiness ever. And the Soviet field commanders were prepared to used battlefield nuclear weapons to defend Cuba if invaded. Fortunately, war was averted. A little context may help you, though. Back in 1962 the Soviet missiles could only reach Europe while US missiles could reach the entire Soviet Union. So this was a time of advantage for the United States. And upon meeting with Kennedy at a summit, the Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev walked away thinking somewhat little of Kennedy as a statesman, and thought that he might have the upper hand in some kind of encounter. So, in April, 1962, Khrushchev started thinking that the placement of intermediate-range missiles in Cuba could deter a potential US attack against the Soviet Union and serve their interests of detente, right? Fidel Castro on the other hand in Cuba, was worried that the US would attack again. After it failed to do so in bay of pigs in 1971. Fidel approves Khrushchev's plan to place missiles on the island. And saw them as a deterrent to a US invasion of Cuba. So the two sides kind of agreed to have this happen. In the summer of 1962, the Soviet Union began to secretly build. Its missiles and installations in Cuba. The crisis for the United States began around October 15th, 1962 when US U2 Reconnaissance planes photographed soviet missiles under construction in Cuba. They looked the planes are as follows and the kind of Reconnaissance. Photos look like the ones on the screen now. At the time, when President Kennedy was informed of these installations, he convened what was called the ExComm, a group of his 12 most important advisors. And ExComm met for a bunch of days, seven days and Kennedy decided to impose a Naval quarantine around Cuba and these meetings. Quite a few key actors were in this group, from Robert Kennedy who was the attorney general, Dean Rusk, the US secretary of state, George Ball who was the undersecretary of state. John McCone, McGeorge Bundy, the National Security Adviser and Robert McNamara, very important figure who is pretty domineering in the meetings, was the secretary of defense. And then Llewellyn Thompson, an ambassador at large former US Ambassador to the Soviet Union. He's the only Russian expert on that committee. On October 22nd, Kennedy announced the discovery of the missile installations to the public and its decision to quarantine the island. And here you see the letter that he wrote to Khrushchev announcing his being upset about the state of events. On October 23rd Kennedy orders the quarantine to actually occur the blockade against Cuba. He also proclaimed that any nuclear missile launch in Cuba will be regarded as an attack on the United States by the Soviet Union and he demanded that the Soviets remove all of their offensive weapons from Cuba. And as you'll see here, you can see the blockade, Kennedy signing that act. And then the planes on the tarmac are spread out in case of a counter attack, or some kind of attack on United States, and Florida. That bombs would not hit all the planes once. On October 23rd Kruschev wrote Kennedy stating the quarantine constituted an act of aggression propelling humankind into the abyss of a world nuclear missile war. On the 24th a Russian vessels turned away from the blockade so they saw eyeball to eyeball, as Dean Rusk said. Then on the 25th The blockade was pulled out further to sea because Kennedy and his navel commanders were worried about mistakes and boarding any craft that might trigger a nuclear war. Tensions were pretty high and Kennedy raised military readiness to DEFCON 2 on the 25th. On the 26th, ExComm received a letter from Khrushchev, proposing the removal of Soviet missiles and personnel if the US can guarantee they would not invade Cuba. On October 27th, a U-2 plane was shot down over Cuba and the ExComm received a second letter from Khrushchev, demanding the removal of US missiles in Turkey in exchange for Soviet missiles in Cuba. At this point, The Trollope Ploy was done which is the United States responded to the first letter accepting the conditions and both sides largely agreed to this. And so, it was kind of an interesting ploy in deal of compromise and trying to To get advantage of the situation. On October 28th, tensions eased a bit when Khrushchev publicly announced that he would dismantle the installations and return the missiles to the Soviet Union. And he expressed his trust that the United States would not invade Cuba. Further negotiations arose to implement the October 28th agreement, and during that time, the US secretly removed missiles from Turkey. And here you see photos of the actual effort to kind of observe and record the actual removal of missiles and that it was actually occurring.