Harry Harding summarizing the Competitive and Antagonistic Aspects of US-China Relations

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From the course by University of Virginia

Public Policy Challenges of the 21st Century

515 ratings

University of Virginia

Public Policy Challenges of the 21st Century

515 ratings

This course introduces class participants to the political significance and societal consequences of challenges facing U.S. and international policymakers. It is designed to help participants develop skills to analyze policy proposals and advocate for their preferred options for issues on the public policy agenda ahead. The class assumes basic knowledge about governing institutions and democratic processes, while recommending supplemental materials for further study to complement reading links provided. The course focuses on future policy challenges, while examining the broad historical context in which policies are adopted and implemented. As the course evaluates how issues are advanced by private sector interests, non-governmental organizations, and government policymakers, it examines how groups become effective policy advocates. Particular attention is paid to how winning coalitions are formed and how issue framing shapes the outcome of policy campaigns. The goal is neither to produce partisan talking points, nor to favor one governance philosophy over others. Rather it is to clarify the public policy challenges ahead and to enhance participants’ understanding of how policy options are adopted in the real world arena of contemporary politics.

From the lesson

US-China Relations

Professor Harry Harding details the complex, all-important relationship between the U.S. and China, outlining different scenarios for future competition and cooperation.

Student introduction to Harry Harding lecture on US-China Relations1:02

Gerry Warburg introduction to Harry Harding: Managing the US-China Relationship3:15

Harry Harding and the Importance of US-China Relations4:28

Harry Harding discusses the Cooperative Aspects of US-China Relations6:37

Harry Harding discusses the Competitive Aspects of US-China Relations13:40

Harry Harding discusses the Conflict Aspects of the US-China Relations7:20

Harry Harding summarizing the Competitive and Antagonistic Aspects of US-China Relations4:39

Harry Harding answers UVa Student Questions11:45

Gerry Warburg and Harry Harding Post Lecture Discussions3:45

Meet the Instructors

Professor Gerry Warburg
Professor of Public Policy, Assistant Dean for External Affairs
Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy

So in conclusion today I've argued that the United States China relationship has

become more competitive on several dimensions and

remains potentially antagonistic in others.

In the economics sphere, both sides have increasingly come to

view their relationship as unfairly imbalanced in favor of the other.

Although there have been numerous efforts to develop rules to govern that

economic competition.

Neither country is satisfied, either with the rules themselves, or

with the other party's faithfulness in abiding by them.

In the strategic sphere, the mechanisms for

preventing diversion interests from

producing confrontation and conflict are far weaker than would be desirable.

In some areas, such as cyber security and the military uses of space,

the rules governing strategic competition have not yet been developed.

And the strategic competition that already exists in these realms will make it

difficult to develop them.

And although the two countries have talked about the desirability of cooperation and

have engaged in numerous dialogues to promote it,

China's preference to act autonomously rather than in

open collaboration with Washington,

as well as its reluctance to devote many resources to cooperative ventures

has produced considerable dissatisfaction in the United States.

As a result, despite the stated desire for a cooperative relationship there is

a widely shared perception that the US China has become essentially competitive.

And in so doing has generated considerable mistrust on both sides of the Pacific,

increasing the chances that the relationship can become confrontational if

issues escalate or if destabilizing trigger events occur.

Looking ahead, therefore, it appears highly unlikely to me.

That the relationship between the US and China will ever be primarily cooperative,

at least in the short to medim, medium term.

The differences in values, political systems, interests,

levels of development and perceptions of the existing international order

are simply too great for the two countries to find common ground on all issues.

Or even to find a neutrally agreeable allocation of costs and

benefits when they try to pursue common interests.

Only a common interest that was massively compelling.

Say a widespread pandemic, another financial crisis,

a global outbreak of terrorist activity targeted at both countries.

Or increasingly severe consequences of climate change

might force the creation of a predominantly cooperative relationship.

But even then, the two countries might not be able to agree on how to

share the burdens of protecting those common interests.

Fortunately a highly confrontational relationship while

conceivable is also unlikely.

The high degree of economic inter-dependence between the two

countries has already created a relatively resilient relationship.

Since the costs of a fundamental break between the two countries would be

very high for each of them.

Equally important the cost of military conflict especially given the fact that

both China and the US are nuclear powers.

Will be a significant deterrent against military conflict.

So although China and the US, unfortunately, may not be compelled to

cooperate across the board, they may also be compelled to avoid confrontation.

So the increasingly familiar prediction that the US China relationship will be

characterized by a complex combination of competition and conflict.

Is not wrong but it remains incomplete.

Some of that competition will be healthy and

constructive, even though possibly intense.

Some of the cooperation will be grudging or constrained and thus disappointing.

While open conflict is unlikely in a military sense,

there will almost certainly be disagreements.

And possibly even elements of economic and

diplomatic confrontation in the relationship.

Overall, the relationship between China and

the US will be plagued by a high level of mistrust,

particularly regarding the issues where competition or discord is the greatest.

The United States and

China are not necessarily doomed to an antagonistic relationship.

If they can learn how to manage their competition, increase their collaboration,

and limit the differences in how they define their interests, and

that will be a responsibility, and a challenge, that both of them share.

Thanks very much.

[APPLAUSE]

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