So in conclusion today I've argued that the United States China relationship has become more competitive on several dimensions and remains potentially antagonistic in others. In the economics sphere, both sides have increasingly come to view their relationship as unfairly imbalanced in favor of the other. Although there have been numerous efforts to develop rules to govern that economic competition. Neither country is satisfied, either with the rules themselves, or with the other party's faithfulness in abiding by them. In the strategic sphere, the mechanisms for preventing diversion interests from producing confrontation and conflict are far weaker than would be desirable. In some areas, such as cyber security and the military uses of space, the rules governing strategic competition have not yet been developed. And the strategic competition that already exists in these realms will make it difficult to develop them. And although the two countries have talked about the desirability of cooperation and have engaged in numerous dialogues to promote it, China's preference to act autonomously rather than in open collaboration with Washington, as well as its reluctance to devote many resources to cooperative ventures has produced considerable dissatisfaction in the United States. As a result, despite the stated desire for a cooperative relationship there is a widely shared perception that the US China has become essentially competitive. And in so doing has generated considerable mistrust on both sides of the Pacific, increasing the chances that the relationship can become confrontational if issues escalate or if destabilizing trigger events occur. Looking ahead, therefore, it appears highly unlikely to me. That the relationship between the US and China will ever be primarily cooperative, at least in the short to medim, medium term. The differences in values, political systems, interests, levels of development and perceptions of the existing international order are simply too great for the two countries to find common ground on all issues. Or even to find a neutrally agreeable allocation of costs and benefits when they try to pursue common interests. Only a common interest that was massively compelling. Say a widespread pandemic, another financial crisis, a global outbreak of terrorist activity targeted at both countries. Or increasingly severe consequences of climate change might force the creation of a predominantly cooperative relationship. But even then, the two countries might not be able to agree on how to share the burdens of protecting those common interests. Fortunately a highly confrontational relationship while conceivable is also unlikely. The high degree of economic inter-dependence between the two countries has already created a relatively resilient relationship. Since the costs of a fundamental break between the two countries would be very high for each of them. Equally important the cost of military conflict especially given the fact that both China and the US are nuclear powers. Will be a significant deterrent against military conflict. So although China and the US, unfortunately, may not be compelled to cooperate across the board, they may also be compelled to avoid confrontation. So the increasingly familiar prediction that the US China relationship will be characterized by a complex combination of competition and conflict. Is not wrong but it remains incomplete. Some of that competition will be healthy and constructive, even though possibly intense. Some of the cooperation will be grudging or constrained and thus disappointing. While open conflict is unlikely in a military sense, there will almost certainly be disagreements. And possibly even elements of economic and diplomatic confrontation in the relationship. Overall, the relationship between China and the US will be plagued by a high level of mistrust, particularly regarding the issues where competition or discord is the greatest. The United States and China are not necessarily doomed to an antagonistic relationship. If they can learn how to manage their competition, increase their collaboration, and limit the differences in how they define their interests, and that will be a responsibility, and a challenge, that both of them share. Thanks very much. [APPLAUSE]
