Anyone who's ever read an introduction on research methodology or done a course on research methodology would have come across the terms induction and deduction. Where induction is theorizing from data, to theory, obviously. And deduction, from a theory, you define a thesis and you test this these with data. And quite some researchers use a third form of reasoning and that's abduction. And the way I define abduction Is how John Sander Pierce originally defined it. And then, abduction is this. It takes these steps. First step is the surprising fact, C, is observed. Then the second step is, if Conclusion A were true, C would be a matter of course. Hence, there is reason to believe that A is true. And that's the formula, and learning such a formula is very important and nice and so on, but it's way better to understand what is going on. So therefore In this rather long lecture I'm going to show you that Paul McCartney is dead by using abduction. Oh, maybe you didn't notice, but Paul McCartney is dead. The one we know as Paul McCartney actually is a fake Paul. Fall, as some would call them. What happened? Well, as you probably know, John Lennon and Paul McCartney, two geniuses, worked on the greatest albums of all times. They were the biggest band in the world. And together they were geniuses, but as it is with geniuses, they clash sometimes. And so Paul and John also clashed sometimes. And they clashed on Wednesday November the Ninth in 1966. They were recording in a recording studio and they were recording Strawberry Fields Forever. Great song. But, they fought over it. And during that night, Paul received a telephone call. It was Linda, Linda McCartney, who called and said, oh, come home please, and then, they were in the middle of a fight, so, Paul McCartney rushed out. Angry, probably he drank something, or used something, we don't know, but they were in a fight. They were having this fight, and he ran off from the studio, and got into his car, in his white Austin Healey. And he drove, through London, quiet London during the night. He didn't notice that the light had changed. So, all of the sudden a truck came, and because he ignored the red traffic light, Paul McCartney was smashed through the window, lay in the street, his skull was open and he died in the street. You didn't know that, did you? You didn't know that because there was a cover-up. And this cover-up was done by the evil manager, Brian Epstein. And Brian Epstein, a great manager for the Beatles, thought but we can't have this band to fail. It's too big to fail. The biggest boy band ever. So, what he did, he convinced the other Beatles that they had to continue. So John, Ringo and George continued playing in the Beatles, but what happened then with this man? Well, this fake Paul. Well, there was a lookalike contest, and in this lookalike contest, William Shears Campbell was the winner. Although he was never officially announced as the winner of this contest. Now that's the story. Let's continue because who found this out using probably abduction. Who found this out? Who discovered this? Well, it was first a student, Tim Harper, who rang into a a radio show with the DJ Russ Gibb. One of the listeners to that show was Fred Labour. And Fred Labour had to write a review about a new album of the Beatles. And rather than writing a normal review, he thought well let's write a little different review. So he started digging up album covers and he started looking at those album covers, and they tried to find out what really happened. And he found out this, this was his conclusion. John, Ringo, and George felt very guilty for having this imposter playing as if he was Paul. So what John, Ringo and George did was on every album cover, they gave some hints and clues, and it was something like a confession out of their guilty minds conscience. So how can we see this? Well if we look at these albums, and especially at this album, we can see many clues of this, of this feeling of guilt these three Beatles had. This, ladies and gentlemen, is the best album that was ever made. So, I'm a great fan of the Beatles, and especially of this album, although it was recorded by an imposter. So what do we see here? Obviously this is a funeral. There are flowers here. All these people gathered, all of them had died or were involved in serious crashes. And these people, they are watching. And they're mourning, as you can see. There's a priest there, and they're standing next to a grave. Whose grave, then? Well, obviously it's Paul McCartney's grave because look. Here you can see a bass guitar. And Paul McCartney was playing bass, left hand bass. And this bass guitar only has three strings, because there are only three Beatles left. But there are many more clues on this album. For instance, you see them here, the old Beatles, they're mourning. And here you see the new Beatles wearing this flower power, summer of love kind of dresses. And they're wearing, they're carrying instruments, brass instruments except for Paul McCartney, the fake Paul, because he's not carrying a brass instrument, he's carrying a wooden instrument because a coffin is made of wood. And brass is used in New Orleans during funeral ceremonies. People make brass music. Brass bands play. So, they're hinting to us something. But there's much more on this album cover. For instance, rumor has it that Paul McCartney was secretly taken to Leso Cemetery. Be at Leso. It says here, literally. Paul McCartney is at Leso. Some authors say that Paul is written here in the space, as well. But there's more. There's much more to this album cover. For instance, you see Shiva here. Here you see Shiva, and she's pointing with two fingers. Two Paul, and two Paul. The old Paul and the fake Paul who is wearing a fake mustache as you can see. But there's more. For instance, this. If you place a little mirror exactly here, what you will see is this. One he, with an arrow, die. So, this one is dead. That's right. He's dead. I can make it a little larger. One he, little arrow, die. And there's more. Way more. For instance. Look at this lovely doll of Shirley Temple. On her lap, there's a white Austin-Healey. Didn't I say he was driving a white Austin-Healey? Well, there it is, the white Austin-Healey, on the lap of Shirley Temple. But beside Shirley Temple, you can see here driver's gloves, and not just ordinary driver's gloves. No, the type Paul McCartney was wearing. Actually, it were the ones Paul was wearing when he got involved in his accident. Because you can see the bloodstains on it. So it's a funeral, with many clues and many hints. Paul McCartney is the only Beatle on several albums who is depicted with a hand above his head. All other Beatles in all other photographs, there are no other Beatles with a hand above their head. The only one who receives the blessing is Paul. And, just behind the hand, you can see the face of the author Jerome K Jerome. And he wrote a book or a story about three men in a boat. Three men in a boat, some sort of shipwreck. And they acted as if the fourth man was still alive, although they ate him. So, why did they do this? Well, obviously we know the reason. It looks like something surprising, but it's not if you know that the Beatles acted from conscience. They felt guilty, culpable. So, and there are more clues inside of this album. You can see Paul McCartney, standing here, officially pronounced dead. He's wearing this sign, officially pronounced dead. And there's more, if we look at the back of the album, it was the first album cover with lyrics on it. And actually when you read the lyrics and when you listen to the music you can hear this. Let me introduce to you the one and only Billy Shears. And this Billy Shears, William Shears Campbell, he's introduced on this album. This album with the weird name Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. Who comes up with this? The fake Paul, obviously. Or the old Beatles, feeling with conscience. And then literally, they described the accident. He blew his mind out in a car. He didn't notice that the lights had changed. A crowd of people stood and stared. They'd seen his face before, but nobody was really sure if he was from the House of Lords. Well that's the typical John Lennon type of joke. We are from the House of Lords. So, and there's more. If you read from this side to that side. Just over the columns. You read this. Somebody calls you. You answer quite slowly while dying in the street. Wednesday morning at 5:00, the time of the accident, as the day begins. And life flows in, within you and without you. And you're on your own. You're in the street. You see, it's actually on the album. They really say it. There are more clues. There are many more clues. For instance, if you look at this famous album. You know this album because it's been parodied so often. It's Abbey Road. Where we had this funeral before, now we see they're marching to the funeral. This is a funeral procession. And who's in front? Well, obviously the priest, John Lennon. And here we see Ringo Starr, the undertaker. Here we see the deceased, we'll talk about him. And here we see a working class hero, the gravedigger. The one who is always the last one at the grave. The one who's digging it. How do we know that Paul is the dead one here? Well, we can see it because he's not wearing shoes. Dead people are not wearing shoes, are they? Do they need shoes? What else do we see? Well like John and Ringo and George are standing like this with their left feet in front. Where as Paul with his right hand in front. Paul was a left hand bass player. He's smoking a cigarette using a right hand here. And there's more. You see the fractured skull. Or at least the clue, the hint towards it. But there's much more. Because if we zoom in a bit, here we can see, if you look properly, L-M-W. Linda McCartney Widow. 28 if. Paul McCartney would have been 28 if. They put display there on the Beetle car. Why? Because they felt guilty. And we see more, because here we see the ambulance personnel with the ambulance. They're standing there. It's not just a clue. It's proven. Isn't it? And we have more album covers. For instance, this one. White. The color of death. And if we listen to the White Album, we hear this strange avant garde song composed by John Lennon, who cut and paste tapes. And he used simple glue. And he played tapes backwards in order to create all kinds of sounds effects. And, this song is called Revolution Number Nine. And it sounds like this. [MUSIC] And this song continues for about eight minutes. A bit weird, avant garde. But, if we use the same technique as John Lennon did when he produced this song, we hear this. >> Number nine, number nine, number nine. >> We turn it backwards now. >> Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on, dead man. Turn me on dead man. Turn me on dead man. Turn me on dead man. >> Well, not only in this song, but in other songs, The Beatles actually sing it to us. They sing, Paul is a dead man, miss him, miss him, miss him. The walrus was Paul, they say. And walrus then meaning the dead one, the deceased one. So not only in this fragment and not only in reverse fragments The Beatles actually sing it. But, As you probably might have Googled already, this story is not true. This is an interesting story, but it's nonsense. However, it's built on abduction. It's built on abduction as conspiracy theories are usually built partly on abduction. And that's also the appeal of conspiracy theories. Like it is the appeal of Sherlock Holmes, at least to me, that he is using abduction all the time. Here we see the rules of abduction again. A surprising fact, C, is observed. Okay did we see that for the Beatles? Yes we did. We looked at this album cover, and then we thought, wow it looks like a funeral. But if A were true, C would be a matter of course. It would be logical. And what is A then? Well, if the Beatles feel guilty for concealing Paul's death, and they use clues to reveal their conscience and their guilt, their hint to a funeral is a matter of course. It's completely logical. Hence, there are grounds to think that Paul is dead. So the type of reasoning in abduction is exactly as we did here. But, there is a huge, huge but. And, that is the problem with conspiracy theories. Abduction in itself is legitimate, is very legitimate, and it's very creative. And I think it's the way to look at data, ponder about data, going back and forth iteratively, and then, come up with new explanations. New ways of thinking about data and information. But abduction in itself, it's not enough. It is, as John Sanders Pierce said, it is a guess. It might be true, but it's not by definition true. We have to check it, and how? Well, we have to use the classics such as induction and deduction. So, what are the problems of conspiracy theories? The problems of conspiracy theories is first this, while the interpretations are presented as facts. I told you about Fred Lebur. What did Fred Lebur do? He had to write a review about an album. And he thought, well let's make up a nice story. And he started looking at the albums. And they started looking at them and said, whoa it looks like a funeral. Well, let's make up a funeral, and hey I heard this rumor that Paul McCartney is dead. There were many rumors around that time, no Internet. All the pop heroes, when they were not on screen, there were rumors about them that they were dead or dying or something was wrong with them. So, Fred Lebur thought, well let's make up a story. And he made up a story using this album cover, using these albums covers. And he looked at this little car and said, well that looks like a white Austin Healey. Let's tell the story that Paul was driving a white Austin Healey. Hey, that looks like drivers gloves. Let's make the story he was using drivers gloves. And I used it in order to tell you. So, I used first a big story and then I started telling you about all the clues we can find. So, what wild interpretations are presented as facts? Well, while the interpretation, for instance, about the book that Jerome wrote about three men in a boat. They didn't actually eat one of them. I looked at the book yesterday, again. There wasn't much about a shipwreck, there wasn't much about eating one of them. There were actually were three man, and the fourth was a dog, so it's completely different way of interpreting. But I've presented it as a fact, and I hoped you believed it. I was talking about Shiva. And is this Shiva? Is this more Shiva, the male deity? Doesn't look like, but maybe it is. I don't know much about Hinduism. At least, I pose it like this, because Shiva the Destroyer. There's more, Paul McCartney was on holiday at that very date in France with his girlfriend that wasn't Linda McCartney at that time, later she was, but not at that time. Paul McCartney wasn't 28 if when they recorded Abbey Road album, he was 27. So that's wrong as well, but it doesn't matter for a conspiracy theory. You simply pose wild interpretations as facts, and you do not do any so called fact checking. Leso, is that a cemetery? Is it logically to be buried there? Be at Lezo? Didn't we read this too much in it? Probably we did. So that's the main thing with conspiracy theories, wild interpretations are presented as mere facts without any fact checking. And this fact checking, that's what you do in a proper deduction. That's what you do in proper induction, such as analytic induction. Now, what we did was cherry picking. Hey, we find something weird here, let's make a story about it. They're carrying brass instruments, so we use those brass instruments. He's carrying a wooden instrument, we talk about wooden instruments. So we do cherry picking and we keep on confirming the same story, the story Fred Lebur made up. And if the story doesn't fit with the facts, what we do is we bent the story a little, like Lebur did, he made up the story based on the album cover. Third part of any conspiracy theory is that any rebuttal, any contradictory evidence, is part of a cover up. So what about this? This look alike contest, there was no one a winner in this contest. Really? It was all a cover up. What about the police looking at this accident? Who, someone bribed them or something. It's always a cover up in conspiracy theories. Now again, does this mean that abduction in itself is illegitimate? No, not at all. But, it remains a guess. And to show a positive example, I would like to show that in a famous book by Max Weber, the Protestant Ethics and the Birth of Capitalism, he writes about the Protestant ethic and the birth of Capitalism. And why? Because he thought, well it's very interesting to see that Capitalism has grown up or come to existence in countries where a majority of new population was more or less Calvinistic, and had a Calvinistic approach and ethic of a calling for the afterlife. They had to work and they had to work hard and they had to invest it in order to save a place in Heaven, and that ethic fits with a capitalist spirit. And so what he does was, he finds a surprising fact. The correlation between Protestant ethic and birth of Capitalism. And he starts looking at it and thinking about it. And he comes up with an explanation, that it's very logical if you relate those two to each other. But in his book he names about six other explanations of why capitalism has risen in these countries, and not all related to Protestant ethics. Also to the middle class to gelts and so on and so forth. So abduction is brilliant and it's a good practice for quality of research, but it's not the only solution.