In this segment, we continue our journey through the methods and models that are used in resilience science. And in this segment we're going to talk about an extremely important model which is the pathway model. And we've seen this before. In this kind of model, we're following life through time. And the letter, these lines and letters represent different patterns that either individuals follow, or that groups of individuals follow. And this particular kind of pattern, the quality of how well the person is doing on some sort of variable is shown on this side. So, people in the okay zone are doing fine as long as they stay in the blue zone here, and then if they're doing really well we call it the optimal zone, and if they're doing poorly we call it the maladaptive zone and people follow different patterns through time. Let me show you a more specific example of a model that is used in disaster research. In this model, we have the onset of an acute disaster here and we have the different patterns that represent response to that disaster. So, this person A does quite well. The disaster happens but this person shows a steady course of good functioning over time. We would call that the stress resistance pathway. In, in this pathway, pattern B, you see a very different picture. This individual or group of people show a very big reaction to this traumatic circumstance and there behavior falls down they become Maladaptive temporarily they show distress, something happens but then as things unfold over time, they recover and they resume their functioning up in the Okay zone. This is the cat, catastrophe and recovery pattern and there is a lot of this observed when you study disaster. Another pattern that is talked about in disaster is pattern C here, which shows an improved reaction following an acute trauma, and this is called post traumatic growth. There's a great deal of interest in this kind of response. Some people rise to the occasion. Following a disaster and actually function better than they did before. And we'll be looking for evidence of that later on in the module about disaster and recovery. Then we have two pathways here that show breakdown without recovery. At least not yet. Pattern D shows somebody who has a very strong reaction to this catastrophe. Their functioning breaks down. They fall into the Maladaptive zone and they continue in that zone. They haven't recovered, at least not yet. Hopefully, people in this group will eventually recover. Another pattern is shown here, E, pattern E. This, this group holds on for a while and then their functioning break down, breaks down. It almost looks as if they have some resources to manage but then their, their resources become depleted. And again, they haven't recovered as of this point in time, but they might recover in the future. Well, this whole model is designed on measuring a variable over here that goes from negative, at the bottom here, to positive at the very top, but often in disaster studies, people want to measure trauma symptoms, and in a model of trauma symptoms you would see something that looks more like this. So, this is the good zone here, low levels of symptoms and this is the showing, beginning to show significant symptoms. That might need some clinical attention perhaps, and if you're way up here this would be indication, indication that you're having a really bad reaction to whatever has happened. So this, I'm showing this same sort of picture, but now our drawings are basically upside down because this is the stress resistance pattern again. This person is going along steadily well. The disaster happens and they continue to go along well. They're man, they're handling it very, very well. And they show a steady course of good functioning. Pattern B is the catastrophe and recovery pattern they show the breakdown but now because we're measuring a variable where going up means having symptoms, their behavior deteriorates goes up into the symptom zone and then falls back down as they recover. And then pattern D shows one of the individuals or group of people who respond poorly to the disaster, and continue to function not very well showing lots of symptoms over this period of time. And people have tried to measure variables like this in research. And it turns out difficult to do, but I want to show you at least one example. As we talk about this model. This example comes from data that was collected quite a while ago after Hurricane Andrew. The, the which occurred in 1992 in the South East United States. And Legreca and her colleagues followed children after the tornado. They measured how they were doing at three months, seven months, and ten months. And they were measuring post traumatic symptoms. So, they were looking to see what kind of recovery patterns that they could observe. And they used new techniques, growth modelling techniques. It, statistically, to try to identify the patterns in the data. And they found three distinct patterns. In this pattern at the top, you see what they called the chronic group. Theys, they had a huge reaction presumably to this disaster. And they were not functioning very well, showing lots of symptoms. And then they show some improvement over time, but they're still in the clinical level of symptoms and problems on this measure. Then we have a group in the middle that is not doing as badly when they started measuring how the children were far, fairing. And they show a stronger recovery pattern and they call this the recovering group. And then you have the low symptom group that function pretty well from the time they started measuring over time. Now, one of the most interesting difficulties in disaster research is knowing where people started, because we don't, she didn't have measures pre-hurricane. The research only began after the hurricane and this often happens because disasters are unexpected. And so, if we look at another picture here, we can see this question mark asking well where did the children start. Well, you know, it's hard to know exactly what pattern they followed. Without knowing where the children began. And what we're going to be looking at in the week when we talk about disaster, is some very important and clever strategies people are using to try to solve this problem. How can we find our or figure out how children we're doing before a disaster occurred. In situations like terrorist attacks or natural disasters or some sort of accident where we don't, you know, we didn't have any measures before this dramatic event occurred. So, we'll take a look at some of the interesting methods, later on, that people have used to try to solve this problem. [SOUND]
