[MUSIC] Hi there. In a previous video, we looked at what foreign fighters are doing out there in Syria and Iraq and what groups they join. In this video, we'd like to look at the threat they pose, or the potential threat they pose. To their countries of origin, and to Syria and Iraq, and other places. So what is the actual and potential threat posed by these foreign fighters? And how do they pose a threat, and to whom exactly? The focus in this video is on Europe, because we have quite a lot of information about threat assessments in Europe. And we know also quite a lot about how and why they could pose a threat to countries within the European Union. Well the idea that they might pose a threat was first made public early 2013. When a number of European intelligence and security services sounded the alarm bell. Over the very rapid increase in the number of people who went to join the fight in Syria. Here are a number of quotes of people and organizations that expressed their concern. Let me start with a report by Europol. The terrorism situation and trench reports, 2014. This report states, returning fighters have the potential to utilize their training, combat experience, knowledge and contacts for terrorist activities inside the European Union. And Germany's Minster of the Interior feared that Syrian jihadist veterans returning to Europe. After being trained in what he called deadly handwork. Will be, and again I quote, ticking time bombs. Well, these are somewhat alarmist expressions, especially the one by the minister of the interior of Germany. But apparently there are reasons to worry. Europol director Rob Wainwright said that returning fighters could incite others to join the armed struggle. Or use their training, combat experience, knowledge and contacts to conduct violent activities within the borders of the European Union. But it's not only European leaders of police organizations, intelligence organizations that express their concern. There are also worries among those responsible for security in countries of origin outside Europe. Let's take the case of Tunisia. That country has more than 6,000 foreign fighters that are active in Syria, Iraq, but also neighboring Libya. It's the largest contingent. And relatively small Tunisia has as many foreign fighters as there are from the European Union, probably even a lot more. And in that country, the Interior Minister in February 2014 said the following. He said we have managed to prevent nearly 8000 people from going to Syria. And we don't have the exact numbers for those who have returned, but we estimate that to be around 400. Well, today, the numbers are even higher, so a relatively large group. And the minister has expressed worries about it and he said the following. He said, we monitor them closely. We've built up a database. And they have experience, we know that. They have experience and training and must be monitored. So worries also in countries like Tunisia, and also in neighboring countries of Syria and Iraq. From which thousands have become foreign fighters. So why is this the case, why so many worries also in the countries in the region? Well most of these foreign fighters have joined jihadist groups related to or inspired by Al-Qaeda. And their agenda is just more than just trying to assist local groups to topple the regime of Assad. Actually many of these groups have a wider agenda. They want to establish an Islamic state, which the so called Islamic State did in 2014. And their caliphate might ideally also include parts of countries that border Syria and Iraq like Jordan. So especially for these countries, it is a very worrisome development. But some of the groups in Syria and Iraq have even a wider agenda. In the sense that they also want to punish or attack powers that support what they call infidel or corrupt regimes. Including countries like the United States and the European Union that support these governments. Well they're also focused on trying to attack the international coalition that is fighting the Islamic State. And that means that there are many countries that are worried about what's going on in Syria and Iraq. Well if you look beyond the agenda of the Jihadist groups and focus on the individual level. The worries of governments of countries of origin pertain to the issue of further radicalization. These fighters have had combat training, and might be part of an international Jihadi network. So some of them go to Syria and Iraq as individuals. But they come back as part of a larger network. And some countries fear that they are being sent home to stage an attack. Also, it's been mentioned very often. Tat they might have a very important role in propaganda and recruitment of new people going out there to fight. So what have we seen so far? Unfortunately we have seen some example of returned foreign fighters from Syria and Iraq. Who have indeed become involved in terrorism. In Europe, the first example was the attack on the Jewish Museum in Brussels in 2014. Followed by the November 2015 Paris attacks and the attacks in Brussels in March 2016. So yes, we do see some examples of returning foreign fighters who have perpetrated terrorist attacks. And this has made the worries about returning foreign fighters even larger. Besides this terrorist threat there's also something that is more of a second order effect or an indirect effect. A number of governments are worried about potential problems related to possibly high numbers of traumatized returnees. Many of these people that have gone to Syria and Iraq have gone so unprepared. And they have seen horrible things. They have maybe participated in horrible things or were bystanders, for instance, beheadings. And they might fall victim to post traumatic stress disorder. And that could lead to all kinds of violence, depression, suicide. And other worrisome developments that might occur only later on, maybe years later. While another indirect effect that many countries of origin are also worried about relates to support groups in their countries. Groups that support the jihad in Syria and Iraq and other places from their homes by way of financing it or recruiting people. Or being part of the propaganda machine. And they're also worried about the possibility that these groups will further radicalize. And accept intimidation or violence as legitimate instruments or courses of action against a government or other groups. For instance against perceived unbelievers or Muslims they consider to be not good Muslims. For instance, those who speak out again jihad and especially against IS or against other groups. They're also worried about Sunni/Shia clashes within their countries. But also think of polarization within society because of what's happening in Syria and Iraq. The horrible pictures of people committing murder in the name of IS and of Islam leads to a lot of anti Muslim feelings. And that of course doesn't make the situation of Muslims in non Muslim majority countries any easier. And we've seen this also in my town, the Hague, where youngsters have been waving the IS flag on the streets. They have congratulated IS with the conquest of Mosul, the city in Iraq. Well, some of those that are sympathizers of IS have been convicted in 2015. For membership of a terrorist organization, have been put in jail. But at the same time we've seen people that have demonstrated, right wing demonstrations. Of people that strongly reject the idea, or the perception, of Islam taking over certain neighborhoods. And we've seen clashes between these groups, call them clashes of civilization at the local scale. Well that's a very important additional indirect threat of what is happening in Syria and Iraq. If I have to look at the threat posed by foreign fighters to countries of origin I see that many home countries have a very home-centric view. A too home-centric view in fact. The focus has mainly been on returning foreign fighters. And I think that is too narrow. It makes sense, because these governments are primarily responsible for the security in their jurisdiction. But I think their citizens cause serious problems outside these countries, in Syria and Iraq. And they are part of war crimes in these countries. And the presence of these foreign fighters makes future peace settlements far more complicated, or even impossible. And they have threatened aid workers, they have threatened and killed journalists. And they are a threat to stability in the region as a whole. And finally, many foreign fighters will probably not return to their countries of origin. Partly because their passports have been taken away, but there are many other reasons as well. They fear prosecution, so they go to other countries, and might one day settle down somewhere, hopefully peacefully. But they also might move on to the next fight, continuing this violence in the region. So we have to be very worried about that as well. These foreign fighters are not only a threat to their countries of origin and not only a threat to Syria and Iraq, but to the region as a whole. To summarize the threat posed by foreign fighters, there are many different ways to look at it. They have had a huge impact in Syria and Iraq and have caused a lot of death and misery in that part of the world. And yes, there have been incidents and attacks in countries of origin. But the overwhelming majority of the victims of this phenomenon are people in Syria and Iraq. And if I have to sum up the threat posts by foreign fighters to the countries of origin I would not stress the physical impact. But I would stress the impact on social peace and intergroup relations. In the next video, we will explore some policy options to deal with this very complex phenomenon of foreign fighters.
