We have examined the Sunshine Policy and its achievements and limitations. And what is the present status of Inter-Korean relations? I would say it's very bad, okay. And there is very high level of suspicion between North and South Korea. And there is very high level of military tension and confrontation between the two sides. South Korean position is very clear. North Korea always cheat. They commit crime. Therefore, we should punish North Korea. This crime and punishment has been a very typical policy of Lee Myung-bak government and Park Geun-hye policy. As a way of punishing North Korea, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye government, adopted the sanctions and pressures and they were hoping that North Korea would collapse very soon. It is a kind of the view of North Korea held by joint by two conservative government. The Lee Myung-bak government and Park Geun-hye government. And you can see those things as an action. In 2007, 2008, July 2008, Lee Myung-bak government closed Mt.Geumgang project. And at the same time Park Geun-hye government completely closed Gaeseong Industrial Complex in January 2016, okay? And those are two most important symbols of inter-Korean economics changing corporation, okay? Here now we can see, those South Korean firms who were operating in Gaeseong Industrial Complex and now evacuating from the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, okay? And another important one is a crisis of inter-Korean relations. As you all may know that there was a sinking of Cheonan naval ship in May 2010, and also there was the shelling of the Yeonpyeong Island by North Koreans in November, 2010. Likewise, there was a very heightened military tension between North and South Korea. This is the South Korean naval ship Cheonan, they were drawing the ship out of the ocean, shipwreck. And in response to North Korean sinking of the Cheonan naval ship, the Lee Myung-bak government announced the May 24th measures in 2010, okay. And in accordance with the measures, it suspended inter-Korean economic relations, okay? And in a similar vein, the Park Geun-hye government completely suspended inter-Korean economic relations, including Gaeseong Industrial Complex after North Korea undertook the first nuclear testing in January 2016. And in view of that, inter-Korean relations moved from good to bad, from bad to worse, okay? And what would be the future scenarios of inter-Korean relations? We can come up with about four, no, three or four scenarios. First scenario is a continuation of status quo, oscillation between conflict and cooperation. The current situation of inter-Korean relations would go for the time being, showing ups and downs in conflict and cooperation. Second scenario is inter-Korean relations can make the breakthrough through the dialogue and negotiation. And they would come up with a new peace regime and even unification. It is very unlikely. But if dialogue and negotiation are the most important tool for managing inter-Korean relations, that is the direction we should go. But it is highly unlikely under the current conservative government. Third scenario is surgical strike, military clash, escalation, and unification after a war. We cannot rule out the possibility. If this scenario takes place it will be catastrophic for both North and South Korea. Particularly we have everything to lose, North Korea might have very little to lose. But such a strike could be undertaken by United States, then it will escalate because North Korea has more than 1,000 long range artillery pieces along the DMZ. And North Korea can aim at any part of Seoul metropolitan areas. Even nowadays at we use American military base. And it can lead to the all out war. Of course, allied forces will eventually win, okay. And, that North Korea could be completely destroyed. But then, we can achieve unification. But with extremely high cost, with extremely high casualties. We got to think about whether this is desirable or not, okay? The fourth possibility is contingency in the North, internal chaos and collapse, and new uncertainty regarding peace and unification on the Korean peninsula. That is what we call the Collapse Theory, okay. It could be, really, North Korean leader and there is kinds of struggle within the military. Or the struggle between the party and the military can lead to the internal chaos. And they can let the regime collapse in North Korea. Which in turn create an enormous uncertainty in North Korea. We do not know. But we are hoping then that our Korea's combined forces will win North Korea, take over North Korea, stabilize North Korea, and achieve unification by reabsorption. It sounds easy, but in reality, it won't be easy because it could be a violation of international law. Or China would not allow the kinds of military intervention by South Korea and the United States, it's yet to be seen. But that kind of collapse theory can bring about major difficult, would accompany extremely difficult situations for South Korea, the US, South China, Russia, even Japan. Therefore, of this scenario, I personally prefer breakthrough through dialogue and negotiation, peaceful regime, and peaceful unification on the Korean peninsula. But in reality, my wish may not come true. We may continue to rely on the continuation of status quo, while there could be major contingency and collapse and military crash and escalation. We should watch out, these future possible scenarios of Korean unification. Thank you very much, I hope you have enjoyed this class on Korean unification.
