Now that we have analyzed the evolution of political regimes, the phenomenon of failed states in the world and also what exactly does it means to offer good governance. We're in a better position to analyze what I think is or will be one of the most important topics for debate in the 20th century, which is global powers. Is there going to be a dramatic change or not in terms of the balance in geopolitical power in the world? Are new global powers going to emerge in these new setting? I'm going to try to share with you some ideas as to why in the past we've observed global powers to rise a nd fall. In fact, I'm also going to be using examples from the rise and fall of entire civilizations or empires. Today, I'm in Jerusalem. This is an amazing city, because, of course, it was founded many years ago and then invaded by the Babylonians and by the Persians, by the Romans, by the early Muslims and then the Crusaders from France and Britain and Germany came here. And then Mamelukes, the Ottoman Empire. And finally, the British Empire which held this area until the end of World War II. This is the Western wall. So while empires came and went, religion remained a constant here in Jerusalem. It is the holy city for the three monotheistic religions. Judaism, Islam and Christianity. So today, I'm here in Vienna, Vienna was the capital of one of the largest empires that ever existed the Hapsburg Empire. Three or 400 years ago here from Vienna, this empire ruled vast parts of the world, including the Americas and also Europe and the empire collapsed at the end of World War I. If you remember, there were two other empires that collapsed at the end of World War I. The Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire. The reason that led to the collapse of the Habsburg Empire was in fact, a 19th century invention, the rise of nationalism. The Habsburg Empire was always a multinational entity and the tensions that built up during the 19th century came to a head during World War I, and the Austrians found themselves on the wrong side of global history. Right behind me is the Peter and Paul Fortress. This was the first establishment of the city of St. Petersburg more than 300 years ago. It was founded by Peter the Great who is buried in the church that you can see in the background. Remember from our previous session, the Russian empire collapsed in 1917, 1918. And then 80 years later, the Soviet Union also collapsed. In both cases, domestic and international factors made a big difference. First of all, let's define what is a global power. So a global power in today's context is a state recognized as having the ability to influence affairs on a global scale, even against the opposition of smaller powers. Now, what does make a global power? What turns an ordinary country into a global power? In other words, what are the foundations of a global power? Well, I think there is essentially four of them. Economic strength, military might, diplomatic capabilities and the so-called soft resources. Now keep in mind that in history in the past, we have referred to global powers as great powers at a time when globalization was not that advanced. The concept of great power was first used. It was coined in the post Napoleonic period about 200 years ago when Austria, Britain, France, Prussia and Russia emerged from the Congress of Vienna in the year 1815 as the great powers of the world. After that period, other countries enjoyed the status of great power for a certain period of time, including Italy, German, Japan, the USSR, the US and more recently, China. So, the big question is who will rule the 21st century? Is it going to be one single power? And in that case, which country? Are we going to have multiple powers sharing the world's stage? And of course, are we going to come up with new ways of governing a world with multiple powers if that's the case? Well, let's take a look at some historical paths and I would like to remind you about one very important thing which is that history is not just one event after another or as Historian Ian Morris put it. History is not just one damn thing after another. There are patterns to history. And in particular, there are specific patterns of rise and decline of global powers and they seem to repeat themselves time and time again. Such patterns, of course are fascinating to study. You see Karl Marx, for instance. Once said and I quote, history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce, unquote. You see, I actually disagree with this statement. I do not believe that history repeats itself. Because even if history were to repeat itself, the second time that something happens is qualitatively different from the first time that it happened and the reason is very simple which is that it happened after it had already happened. So, I actually believe more in Mark Twain's take on this problem. He once said quote, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes, end quote. Let's take a look at what historians tell us about the pattern of rise and decline of civilizations, empires and individual countries. Hegel and Marx believed that the dialect of history, those conflicting modes of thinking about what happens in the world. Those different conceptions are the main engine of the rise and decline of civilizations, empires and countries. A gentleman historian, Oswald Spengler right after World War I published a detailed history of the West arguing that civilizations are like living organisms. And that as such, they are born. They grow. They mature, but they eventually and inevitably decline. His counterparts of these efforts was a British historian, Arnold Toynbee who wrote in the 1930s a very detailed history, multi-volume history of the rise and decline of civilizations in the world and he also wrote about the cycles of challenge, response and suicide driven by moral and political decay. More recently, another British historian, Paul Kennedy emphasized overstretch as the reason for imperial decline. That is to say that empires take on too many commitments and they start controlling too much territory. And sooner or later, they lose control over it. More recently also, Jared Diamond, the Ecologist wrote about how civilizations and empires decline and eventually collapse, because they abuse their natural environments. And Niall Ferguson has written about another potential theory here, which involves the concepts of complexity and collapse. Let me quote from one of his articles. Great powers and empires are complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components that are asymmetrically organized. Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for some time. They seem to be in equilibrium, but are in fact, constantly adapting. There comes a moment when complex systems go critical. A very small trigger can set off a phase transition from a benign equilibrium to a crisis. When things go wrong is a complex system, the scale of disruption is nearly impossible to anticipate. A relatively minor shock can cause a disproportionate and sometimes fatal disruption. This argument about complexity and collapse helps understand why there are so many instances in history of civilizations or empires that were doing just fine at some point. And then within a few months or in some cases, a few years, completely collapsed. Let me share with you some examples. The Roman Empire in the 5th century or the Aztec, Mayan or Incan Empires in the early 16th century. Ming China in the 17th century. The collapse of the French monarchy. The Spanish Empire, which as you know came to an end as we know it in the wake of the Napoleonic invasions. The Hapsburg, Ottoman and Romanov empires which came to an end in the wake of World War I or the shrinking of the British empire after World War II and the collapse of the Soviet Union after Afghanistan and the nuclear accident at Chernobyl and who knows what the 21st century might bring in terms of the stature of the United States as a global power. So let's summarize what are the causes or the main factors in the decline and collapse of civilizations, and empires. I think it's useful to divide them between internal and external factors. Among the internal factors, we have fiscal crisis. We have overstretch. That is to say, taking on too many commitments and we have social and political. And in some cases, ethnic and religious fragmentation. And among the external causes, we have the abuse of physical environments and we have, of course, external threats coming from other civilizations or empires.
