Welcome back to the third topic in this broader terrain of human in social capital and we're going to focus now for the next few minutes on making good and timely decisions. And I just want to stress at the outset that there is an emphasis on And we want good and timely decisions and here's why. Two factors in our estimate are making for shorter cycle times in how products are developed, how long they last in the market, what kind of a service somebody wants and how long that will be in the market in a viable way. It puts a premium on managers like you making a good and timely decision. Whether it's for a service, a product, or maybe just how you get the job done itself. And the two factors that we think are pushing the need for more good and timely decision making is first of all so many organizations have themselves innovated and found ways of getting products out there more quickly than in the past. So if your competitors are becoming good at developing a product, getting it out, getting it in a store or maybe a hospital service to your patients. It kind of leaves nobody a choice but to begin to match that time cycle make it at number two though more challenging so to speak is the fact that in many markets, there's greater complexity many more different kinds of products. For example and greater uncertainty, partly regulatory, partly costumers are more fickle all that being said It does put a premium, this is why it's the third critical topic in managing people at work on becoming good at timely decision making. I'd like you to think just for 50 seconds or so about a decision you have seen in your own organization in the last, let's make it the last two years, that took too long for it to be made You might have been part of it. You might have watched it, it might have been your own. Just pick a decision that, whatever it was, took longer than it should have, it was no better having been delayed and there might have been some cost. And ask yourself, what slowed that decision down? What were, kind of, the hidden causes? And often anticipating what you're thinking right now. There might have been too many people that had to sign off, some people maybe were fearful of making a decision because they anticipated they'd get cut off at the knees if they made it wrong. All these are part of the human tableau. These are factors we need as a manager to be cogniscent of and then work around. Maybe to make the point more directly, I have a photograph here of John Chambers, who, for 20 years ran Cisco Systems, the maker of the hardware of the Internet. We all have had our digital messages go down something that John Chambers and his. A large company of more than 30,000 people these days have made for wherever we work, the hardware, the backbone of the internet. I encountered John Chambers at an event a couple years ago. He stepped down now, but he was chief executive then of this Silicon Valley high tech company Cisco Systems. And I said, John, all my academic colleagues say you're great at making good and timely decisions when it comes to acquisitions. Cisco has grown to use to your partly inorganically, that is, through acquisitions are partly organically, just by adding more customers and more revenue to existing products. On the inorganic side though, John Chambers has an enviable record of picking winners and avoiding losers, hard to do when it comes to merges in acquisitions, his hit rate is way above average. Back to my question John, what’s the secret of your success. And making this very difficult decisions and a changing market was cycle time is getting shorter and he said. Well, actually one of my secrets a person was a persons any right next to me, right next to him at a time. Larry Carter chief financial officer of Cisco and I said that's great so tell me why Larry Carter How is he your secret weapon? John Chambers explained it as follows. He said, Larry Carter, Chief Financial Officer, he knows his place as [LAUGH] well as I do when it comes to understanding what destroys value or what adds value. But equally, when I turned to him for advice, and I do turn to him for informal, offline consult him before I make the final judgement call on a tough $3 billion acquisition. I know that when he gives me advice, it's coming with a certain authenticity, certain credibility because he doesn't want my job. And I actually had to say, John, I don't understand the point. I'd like you to work on the point and here's what John said in response to my question, well, what were you saying with that? He said human nature being human nature people are sworn to uphold the purpose or mission of the enterprise of course. But sometimes hidden agendas or unconscious bias can cloud their judgement and since he didn't want my job I knew, almost by definition. No chance would he give me an answer that maybe was not a great answer, anticipating if I faltered, he might get my job. And with that being said, began to look around for evidence that'd back that up, came on a great study by faculty member at Stanford University, Kathleen Eisonhardt. and here on the left side of the screen that you can see is what she discovered at a group of companies in silicon valley that she looked at that were quick to get products out into the market. And then she compared the fast tribe, just to use that phrase, To slow tribe. Other companies very similar in scale, very similar in product, that took twice as long typically to get a product out. It was no better, it just took twice as long. So fast versus slow. And then she asked well what's the difference between the fast movers and the people who are relatively slower by comparison. All pretty fast of course afterall it's Silicon Valley. The fast movers she found, look at the red there that has highlighted one point Are the companies that have, like John Chambers, an inside experienced counselor. Somebody who is able to give unbiased, non self-serving advice. Let's make that more affirmative in the form of a management suggestion. Good to have somebody. Close to you. Maybe a person who used to have your job Who's willing to sit with you and just think out loud about a decision you're facing and you have to make. And that's a way of saying that as we begin to solve the problem that James reminded us of, That having a counselor inside, maybe outside a good idea. Take a look at the first bullet at the top of that list. I'm not going to go through them all, just want to get your attention to that. And that is collect active real-time data. Don't send somebody out to send data back three weeks from now. Say look, we need it now. We want it today. That's, again, one of the findings on that particular fast versus slow comparison. Like you to hang on to those five factors there. Just take a look at them. I'm going to ask you to apply them in a minute, and now I'm going to add Information on decision making or really guidance on decision making from the U.S. Marine Corps. U.S. Marine Corps, I think we all know what is charter is, is to get in, get the job done, and get out. And to appreciate that for more than a decade now, we take our MBA students down, but a hundred 90 total in the course of a year for a day and a half with the US Marine Corp on timely and good decision making. We wanted to know how does the Marine Corp think about that? How do they instruct in that? The topic we're focusing on right now four answers emerged. As are conveyed to our students, you can see the photographs here that have our MBA students looking at, in the center photograph, for example, at a Marine instructor. And the Marine instructors are saying the following, four key points, add these to what we had on that prior slide with five key points. Number one, Marine officers are instructed to know to make a decision in the field with 70% of the information you need, 70% confidence, 70% consensus. Now, it's a metaphor, keep that in mind. But the key point is, it's more than 50%. Ideas don't shoot from the hip. That's timely, but not good. Conversely, don't wait for 99% certainty that you have all the data, because somebody else is going to be on the high ground before you get there, physically, literally. But in taking this now as a metaphor 70% get analysis done, gather data, build agreement, but don't wait for perfect agreement or perfect data. Number two, a separate but really important point, a manager needs to learn, or a marine officer needs to learn, To convey what a Marine would call commander's intent. What in business or other organizations we tend to call strategic intent. Here's what I want, says you the manager to people around you. And then don't try to micromanage what they do. Leave your subordinates to work out the details. There's a phrase that captures that point I think it's a great phrase, eyes on, hands off. That leads to the third point. Again a kind of formulation for making good in timely which is to develop a tolerance even a Around of applause for the people that work for you when they make a mistake the first time. They're going to make mistakes because 70% means they don't have perfect understanding of the situation, and you've told them what your intent is, and then you've not told them how to do it, you're better than they are by definition as their manager So, they're going to have to learn by making mistakes, by learning, by doing. And the statement is, it's a great statement from Marine Corps and many organizations that Peter Capella and I worked with is that you have to develop a tolerance for first time mistakes and after x review to come back on what happened. How can we make certain it does not happen again And of course no tolerance for the same kind of mistake made a second time. Finally I love the phrase indecisiveness is a fatal flaw. For the U.S. Marine Corp that has a certain meaning in combat areas in organizations that we're talking about today. That has a certain metaphor. And maybe just to sum that up I'm going to offer up a statement that probably describes a certain number of you listening. And that is if you work for a boss who just couldn't get a decision made. Couldn't get paper off her or his desk. You started going nuts. You knew decisions had to get made And an indecisive manager can be fatal for their career. It can be very detrimental for the organization. Keep those four points from the US Marine Corps in mind. Keep the five points on the left hand side. Of the information from Silicon Valley in mind. Keep in mind what John Chambers said about having somebody close to you to whom you can turn for guidance. I'm going to ask you to calculate the cost, the jeweler's total loss. With the information in front of you. Take 60 seconds, be mindful of those factors. The whole point of this course is to put some factors in the back of our head we can apply. Take 60 seconds. I'm going to ask you what your answer is, write it down on a piece of paper in front of you.