Forecasting US Presidential Elections with Mixed Models

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In this Guided Project, you will:

Learn how the US elects Presidents in the Electoral College

Understand the basics of mixed effects models

Build a forecasting model to simulate the election using mixed effects models

2 hours
Intermediate
No download needed
Split-screen video
English
Desktop only

In this project-based course, you will learn how to forecast US Presidential Elections. We will use mixed effects models in the R programming language to build a forecasting model for the 2020 election. The project will review how the US selects Presidents in the Electoral College, stylized facts about voting trends, the basics of mixed effects models, and how to use them in forecasting.

Skills you will develop

  • Forecasting

  • Election

  • Linear Regression

  • Statistical Models

  • Mixed Model

Learn step-by-step

In a video that plays in a split-screen with your work area, your instructor will walk you through these steps:

  1. Overview of Forecasting Elections (Lecture)

  2. Overview of How the US Elects Presidents (Lecture)

  3. Stylized Facts About Voting (Lecture)

  4. Types of Forecasting Models (Lecture)

  5. Building a Fundamentals Based Forecasting Model (Lecture)

  6. Setting Up the Dataset (Coding)

  7. Fitting the Model (Coding)

  8. Extracting Variances (Coding)

  9. Simulating Errors (Coding)

  10. Viewing the Winner (Coding)

How Guided Projects work

Your workspace is a cloud desktop right in your browser, no download required

In a split-screen video, your instructor guides you step-by-step

Frequently Asked Questions

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At the top of the page, you can press on the experience level for this Guided Project to view any knowledge prerequisites. For every level of Guided Project, your instructor will walk you through step-by-step.

Yes, everything you need to complete your Guided Project will be available in a cloud desktop that is available in your browser.

You'll learn by doing through completing tasks in a split-screen environment directly in your browser. On the left side of the screen, you'll complete the task in your workspace. On the right side of the screen, you'll watch an instructor walk you through the project, step-by-step.