Navigating the Enrollment Cliff: Strategies for Growth

The term enrollment cliff refers to the projected decline in college enrollments. This decline is attributed to various factors, with demographic and cultural shifts among the most significant [3]. This projected significant decline in college enrollments poses challenges for institutions and businesses that traditionally rely on a steady influx of new students and recent graduates.

In many talent pipelines, businesses recruit from educational programs preparing graduates for specific industry roles. Organizations may even have partner programs designed to streamline student entry into careers after graduation. However, as traditional talent pipelines wane, businesses and institutions must innovate and adapt to ensure a skilled and capable workforce. Discover more about the enrollment cliff, how it affects higher education and corporate recruitment, and strategies to minimize its impact. 

Offer students 8,400 courses from 350+ leading universities and industry partners

Equip students with the most in-demand skills and prepare them for job success.

Learn more

What causes an enrollment cliff?

Several factors affect the appearance of an enrollment cliff, including demographic and cultural shifts. For example, financial stresses during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009 heavily impacted birth rates, reducing the number of young adult students projected to enter higher education in the mid-2020s. However, despite lower birth rates, high school graduation rates are higher than ever across demographic groups, and the proportion of high school graduates enrolling in college has remained relatively constant over the last decade [1].

Cultural changes, including questions surrounding the value of college, have led more students to choose alternative education options. More people seek credentials outside traditional degree programs, including certificate programs, work-based training, skills-based short courses, and competency-based education programs. You can attribute some of this shift to the reduction in jobs requiring four-year degrees, while other parts may be a response to higher tuition rates and growing national student loan debt.

Are all higher education pathways seeing a decline?

While freshman enrollment has decreased at traditional four-year institutions, many other types of institutions are seeing an increase. Remote universities, trade schools, apprenticeship programs, and community colleges have all seen a rise in enrollment [5]. 

Strategies to navigate the enrollment cliff 

As the enrollment cliff becomes more pronounced, institutions looking for new students and businesses seeking candidates can take several steps to lessen the impact of potential talent shortages and remain competitive. While it’s important to pick the right strategies for your institution or business, consider the following strategies. 

Recruit from other geographic areas

Some projections expect the enrollment cliff to be more pronounced in some areas of the United States. For example, Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College, forecasts that college enrollment will increase on the West Coast while decreasing significantly in the Midwest and East Coast [2, 3]. 

If your organization is in an area with a more pronounced enrollment cliff, you may strategically practice student recruitment in areas with more graduates in your industry. Consider identifying areas with stronger enrollment rates and creating a talent acquisition strategy to network with candidates. 

Embrace alternate educational pathways

An organization may consider alternative recruitment pathways to counteract the shrinking pool of college graduates. More organizations focus on skills-based hiring; some companies even eliminate degree requirements for open positions. Instead, organizations look for candidates with the skills and competencies needed to be successful in open positions. This widens the talent pool for organizations and increases diversity in the workforce. In a 2023 survey of 1,000 US hiring managers by Intelligent.com, 76 percent said they favored experience over education [4]. 

Institutions can also explore embracing alternative educational routes, allowing students to earn alternative credentials or skills-specific certifications that demonstrate a student's job readiness. Students are 76% more likely to enroll in a degree program that offers industry micro-credentials.

Prioritize in-demand learning opportunities

By looking at market trends and enrollment projections, you can determine the types of positions and learning opportunities likely to be in high demand. Modern students and employees often desire learning and development opportunities, and having high-quality learning plans can increase their engagement and retention. By assessing which type of skills are likely to attract students, you can prioritize organizational resources to develop programs related to high-interest topics.

Retain and reskill existing employees

Another strategy your business can adopt is prioritizing retention strategies for your existing talent base. Organizations that excel at retaining top talent often build a strong culture with positive relationships between coworkers and managers, promote continuous learning and development, and provide benefits that allow employees to balance their work and personal lives. 

One benefit of focusing on employee learning and development is that you can address skill gaps opened by enrollment cliffs and evolving markets through reskilling efforts. In some cases, you might find a gap between what employees learned in traditional education and the current in-demand skills in your industry. Reskilling involves building employee skills needed to excel as your workplace evolves. These efforts often focus on critical thinking, leadership, advanced data analysis, information processing, and technological skills. 

Plan long-term

Taking a long-term view can help you position your organization for sustained success. Consider how demographic trends change the educational landscape and what new pathways might attract high-quality talent. Pay attention to institutional research and emerging data to inform strategic decisions and position your company to seize new recruitment and talent development opportunities.

Strategic partnerships to counteract the enrollment cliff

Strategic partnerships between learning platforms and educational institutions are essential to navigate an enrollment cliff and talent shortage. These collaborations can help bridge the skills gap, ensure a steady flow of talent, and adapt the workforce naturally over time.

Why partner?

The rise of technology and remote learning presents additional opportunities to address the enrollment cliff. Organizations can leverage online learning platforms and learning management systems to offer online courses and virtual workshops and track employee learning metrics. 

These platforms also enable organizations to provide adaptive and accessible training to employees, offering flexible schedule options and tailored learning pathways. These tools can help upskill the current workforce and ensure employees remain competitive as the job market changes. 

Organizations can leverage higher education partnerships to facilitate internships and collaborations with the student body. This expands the reach and impact of your corporate learning initiatives and allows you to influence curricula development to reflect current industry demands. These programs can help upskill current employees as well as identify upcoming graduates as potential future employees, creating a pipeline of qualified talent.

Partner with Coursera

Coursera for Campus empowers any university to offer students, faculty, and staff job-relevant, credit-ready* online education. With Coursera for Campus, you can promote student employability by teaching in-demand skills for high-growth fields. You can help students master job-ready skills with Guided Projects, programming assignments, and in-course assessments—online, offline, and via mobile. Enable faculty to create projects, assessments, and courses tailored to learner needs with Coursera for Campus. * Credit eligibility determined by your institution.