About this course: This course will provide you with an intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life. The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution". You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!
Who is this class for: This course is aimed for all those who want to learn how to improve decisions that involve some uncertainty. The course is constructed such that no previous knowledge of statistics is required to follow it. The acquired knowledge can be applied in any field that involves uncertainty.
Created by: University of Zurich
Taught by: Karl Schmedders, Professor of Quantitative Business Administration
Department of Business Administration
| Level | Beginner |
| Commitment | You will have to invest about 3-4 hours per module to acquire the taught knowledge. |
| Language | English |
| Hardware Req | You will need Excel or a similar spreadsheet program, such as the Google Docs spreadsheet. |
| How To Pass | Pass all graded assignments to complete the course. |
| User Ratings |
Syllabus
WEEK 1
Probability
In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring.
7 videos, 1 reading
- Reading: Script: Part 1
- Video: Introduction
- Video: Definition and Rules
- Video: A First Look at Statistical Independence
- Video: Subjective Probabilities
- Video: Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law
- Video: Exercise
Graded: Introductory Quiz
Graded: 1.1
Graded: 1.2
Graded: 1.3
Graded: 1.4
Graded: 1.5
Graded: 1.6
WEEK 2
Conditional Probability
The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W
6 videos, 1 reading
- Reading: Script: Part 2
- Video: Definition
- Video: Multiplication Rules
- Video: Probability Tables
- Video: Bayes Rule
- Video: Exercise
Graded: 2.1
Graded: 2.2
Graded: 2.3
Graded: 2.4
Graded: 2.5
Graded: 2.6
WEEK 3
Application
We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law.
6 videos
- Video: The Monty Hall Problem
- Video: Structuring Risks: Part 1
- Video: Structuring Risks: Part 2
- Video: The Prosecutor's Fallacy
- Video: The Sad Story of Sally Clark
Graded: 3.1
Graded: 3.2
Graded: 3.3.1
Graded: 3.3.2
Graded: 3.4
Graded: 3.5
WEEK 4
Discrete Random Variables
In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution.
8 videos, 1 reading
- Reading: Script: Part 4
- Video: Expected Value
- Video: Measures of Dispersion
- Video: Application: Financial Model
- Video: Binomial Distribution
- Video: Application: Airline Overbooking
- Video: Exercise 1
- Video: Exercise 2
Graded: 4.1
Graded: 4.2
Graded: 4.3
Graded: 4.4
Graded: 4.5
Graded: 4.6
Graded: 4.7
Graded: 4.8
WEEK 5
Normal Distribution
We want to get comfortable with the normal distribution. We will discuss what the famous bell curve really represents. And we will learn how easy it is to calculate normal probabilities.
6 videos, 1 reading
- Reading: Script: Part 5
- Video: Normal Distribution
- Video: Calculating Normal Probabilities
- Video: Calculations with the Normal Distribution
- Video: Application of the Normal Distribution
- Video: Exercise
Graded: 5.1
Graded: 5.2
Graded: 5.3
Graded: 5.4
Graded: 5.5
FAQs
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Creators
University of Zurich
Founded in 1833, the University of Zurich (UZH) is Switzerland’s largest university, with a current enrollment of over 26,000 students. Made up of seven faculties covering approximately 100 different subject areas, UZH is proud to offer the most comprehensive academic program in the country.
Ratings and Reviews
Thank you very much
Fun but too basic so a good intro for a complete newbie
Very intuitive and easy to follow.
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A very simple, clear and easy-to-understand course about probabilities and their applications in real life.