An Intuitive Introduction to Probability

University of Zurich

About this Course

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This course will provide you with a basic, intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life. 
The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. 

The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution".

You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!

Learner Career Outcomes

18%

started a new career after completing these courses

17%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 30 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English, Persian

Skills you will gain

Bayes' TheoremNormal DistributionProbabilityConditional Probability

Learner Career Outcomes

18%

started a new career after completing these courses

17%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 30 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English, Persian

Instructor

Instructor rating

4.87/5 (163 Ratings)

Karl Schmedders

Professor of Quantitative Business Administration

Department of Business Administration

37,714 Learners

1 Course

Offered by

University of Zurich

Founded in 1833, the University of Zurich (UZH) is Switzerland’s largest university, with a current enrollment of over 26,000 students. Made up of seven faculties covering approximately 100 different subject areas, UZH is proud to offer the most comprehensive academic program in the country.

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course

Content Rating95%(5,078 ratings)

Week

Week 1

7 hours to complete

Probability

In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring.

7 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 63 min), 1 reading, 7 quizzes

7 videos

Welcome6m

Introduction5m

Definition and Rules12m

A First Look at Statistical Independence10m

Subjective Probabilities9m

Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law11m

Exercise7m

1 reading

Script: Part 12h

7 practice exercises

Introductory Quiz30m

1.130m

1.230m

1.330m

1.430m

1.530m

1.630m

Week

Week 2

6 hours to complete

Conditional Probability

The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W

6 hours to complete

6 videos (Total 54 min), 1 reading, 6 quizzes

6 videos

Intuition8m

Definition7m

Multiplication Rules10m

Probability Tables9m

Bayes Rule10m

Exercise6m

1 reading

Script: Part 22h

6 practice exercises

2.130m

2.230m

2.330m

2.430m

2.530m

2.630m

Week

Week 3

4 hours to complete

Application

We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law.

4 hours to complete

6 videos (Total 80 min)

6 videos

The Birthday Problem15m

The Monty Hall Problem11m

Structuring Risks: Part 113m

Structuring Risks: Part 28m

The Prosecutor's Fallacy15m

The Sad Story of Sally Clark16m

6 practice exercises

3.130m

3.230m

3.3.130m

3.3.230m

3.430m

3.530m

Week

Week 4

7 hours to complete

Discrete Random Variables

In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution.

7 hours to complete

8 videos (Total 80 min), 1 reading, 8 quizzes

8 videos

Discrete Random Variables11m

Expected Value12m

Measures of Dispersion8m

Application: Financial Model5m

Binomial Distribution17m

Application: Airline Overbooking11m

Exercise 16m

Exercise 25m

1 reading

Script: Part 42h

8 practice exercises

4.130m

4.230m

4.330m

4.430m

4.530m

4.630m

4.730m

4.830m

Frequently Asked Questions

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An Intuitive Introduction to Probability