Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p?

University of London

About this Course

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We live in an uncertain and complex world, yet we continually have to make decisions in the present with uncertain future outcomes.  Indeed, we should be on the look-out for "black swans" - low-probability high-impact events.
To study, or not to study?  To invest, or not to invest?  To marry, or not to marry?

While uncertainty makes decision-making difficult, it does at least make life exciting!  If the entire future was known in advance, there would never be an element of surprise.  Whether a good future or a bad future, it would be a known future.

In this course we consider many useful tools to deal with uncertainty and help us to make informed (and hence better) decisions - essential skills for a lifetime of good decision-making.

Key topics include quantifying uncertainty with probability, descriptive statistics, point and interval estimation of means and proportions, the basics of hypothesis testing, and a selection of multivariate applications of key terms and concepts seen throughout the course.

Learner Career Outcomes

50%

started a new career after completing these courses

33%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 16 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English

Instructor

Instructor rating

4.81/5 (248 Ratings)

Dr James Abdey

Assistant Professorial Lecturer, LSE

University of London

50,815 Learners

1 Course

Learner Career Outcomes

50%

started a new career after completing these courses

33%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 16 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English

Offered by

University of London

The University of London is a federal University which includes 18 world leading Colleges. Our distance learning programmes were founded in 1858 and have enriched the lives of thousands of students, delivering high quality University of London degrees wherever our students are across the globe. Our alumni include 7 Nobel Prize winners. Today, we are a global leader in distance and flexible study, offering degree programmes to over 50,000 students in over 180 countries. To find out more about studying for one of our degrees where you are, visit www.london.ac.uk

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course

Content Rating96%(4,849 ratings)

Week

Week 1

3 hours to complete

Dealing with Uncertainty and Complexity in a Chaotic World

3 hours to complete

8 videos (Total 68 min), 6 readings, 1 quiz

8 videos

Welcome!3m

1.1 The Monty Hall Problem9m

1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10m

1.3 Uncertainty in the News9m

1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10m

1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!9m

1.6 Roadmap of the Course9m

Week One Summary and Key Takeaways4m

6 readings

1.1 The Monty Hall Problem10m

1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10m

1.3 Uncertainty in the News10m

1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10m

1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!10m

1.6 Roadmap of the Course10m

1 practice exercise

Week One Quiz30m

Week

Week 2

3 hours to complete

Quantifying Uncertainty With Probability

3 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 74 min), 6 readings, 1 quiz

7 videos

2.1 Probability Principles13m

2.2 Simple Probability Distributions11m

2.3 Expectation of Random Variables13m

2.4 Bayesian Updating11m

2.5 Parameters9m

2.6 The Distribution Zoo11m

Week Two Summary and Key Takeaways4m

6 readings

2.1 Probability Principles10m

2.2 Simple Probability Distributions10m

2.3 Expectation of Random Variables10m

2.4 Bayesian Updating10m

2.5 Parameters10m

2.6 The Distribution Zoo10m

1 practice exercise

Week Two Quiz30m

Week

Week 3

3 hours to complete

Describing The World The Statistical Way

3 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 78 min), 6 readings, 2 quizzes

7 videos

3.1 Classify Your Variables!11m

3.2 Data Visualisation11m

3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency13m

3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10m

3.5 The Normal Distribution11m

3.6 Variance of Random Variables13m

Week Three Summary and Key Takeaways5m

6 readings

3.1 Classify Your Variables!10m

3.2 Data Visualisation10m

3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency10m

3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10m

3.5 The Normal Distribution10m

3.6 Variance of Random Variables10m

1 practice exercise

Week Three Quiz

Week

Week 4

2 hours to complete

On Your Marks, Get Set, Infer!

2 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 78 min), 6 readings, 1 quiz

7 videos

4.1 Introduction to Sampling12m

4.2 Random Sampling11m

4.3 Further Random Sampling12m

4.4 Sampling Distributions11m

4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean11m

4.6 Confidence Intervals13m

Week Four Summary and Key Takeaways5m

6 readings

4.1 Introduction to Sampling10m

4.2 Random Sampling10m

4.3 Further Random Sampling10m

4.4 Sampling Distributions10m

4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean10m

4.6 Confidence Intervals10m

1 practice exercise

Week Four Quiz

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Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p?