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There are 4 modules in this course
Master Bayesian inference and unlock powerful probabilistic reasoning for data-driven decision-making. This course builds your foundation in Bayesian analysis, from viewing probability as degrees of belief to implementing advanced MCMC methods. Learn to apply Bayes’ theorem to real-world problems, use conjugate priors for efficient computation, and derive credible intervals that fully capture parameter uncertainty. Through hands-on practice, you’ll move from analytical solutions to computational techniques like Metropolis-Hastings, Gibbs sampling and Variational Inference, essential for modern Bayesian workflows. You’ll gain skill in interpreting posterior distributions, contrasting Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, and applying convergence diagnostics for reliable results. Whether in finance, healthcare, or business, you’ll acquire the statistical framework and computational tools to make principled inferences under uncertainty and effectively communicate probabilistic insights.
Welcome to Bayesian Inference Fundamentals! In this module, you will be introduced to the Bayesian way of thinking. First, focusing on the qualitative and quantitative details of Bayes' theorem. Then, you will also learn about random variables, which are a central piece of probabilistic and Bayesian analysis.
What's included
5 videos7 readings5 assignments1 ungraded lab
Show info about module content
5 videos•Total 23 minutes
Introduction to Bayesian Thinking•3 minutes
Probabilistic Thinking•6 minutes
Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule•4 minutes
The Prior•5 minutes
Random Variables•4 minutes
7 readings•Total 70 minutes
Course Overview•10 minutes
Technical and Accessibility Support•5 minutes
The McGurk Effect•20 minutes
Bayesian Average•10 minutes
Disease Testing and Bayes' Rule•10 minutes
Module Wrap-Up•5 minutes
Recommended Learning Resources•10 minutes
5 assignments•Total 90 minutes
Lab Check-in: Bayesian Inference in College Football•5 minutes
Probabilities and Beliefs•10 minutes
Bayesian Reasoning & Uncertainty•15 minutes
Test Yourself: Introduction to Applied Bayesian Data Analysis•30 minutes
Let's Practice: Introduction to Applied Bayesian Data Analysis•30 minutes
1 ungraded lab•Total 45 minutes
Guided Lab: Bayesian Inference in College Football•45 minutes
Bayes' Theorem and Conjugate Priors
Module 2•4 hours to complete
Module details
In this module, you will further your understanding of Bayes’ rule by applying it to distributions of random variables. This will provide you with the full benefits of the Bayes rule, going beyond posterior point estimates.
Test Yourself: Bayes' Theorem and Conjugate Priors•30 minutes
Let's Practice: Bayes' Theorem and Conjugate Priors•30 minutes
1 ungraded lab•Total 60 minutes
Bayesian Box Office Revenue•60 minutes
Bayesian Estimation and Credible Intervals
Module 3•6 hours to complete
Module details
In this module, you will focus on the important difference between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches through the lens of credible and confidence intervals. You will understand the main benefits of taking a Bayesian approach in analyzing your data, and you will see a first set of methods for approximating posteriors through simulations.
What's included
5 videos5 readings6 assignments2 ungraded labs
Show info about module content
5 videos•Total 16 minutes
Credible intervals•3 minutes
Credible vs confidence intervals•3 minutes
Posterior sampling•3 minutes
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)•4 minutes
Rejection Sampling•4 minutes
5 readings•Total 100 minutes
Empirical Credible Intervals•45 minutes
Inverse Transform Sampling•10 minutes
ABC Example: The importance of function S()•10 minutes
An example of how to sample like a snob: reject them•30 minutes
Module Wrap-Up •5 minutes
6 assignments•Total 110 minutes
Is it credible or is it confident?•10 minutes
Sampling•10 minutes
Simulation-based Methods•15 minutes
Roll the dice and test your sampling knowledge•15 minutes
Test Yourself: Bayesian Estimation and Credible Intervals•30 minutes
Let's Practice: Bayesian Estimation and Credible Intervals•30 minutes
2 ungraded labs•Total 120 minutes
Highest Density Intervals (HDIs) Demonstration•60 minutes
Rejection Sampling Particle•60 minutes
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods
Module 4•6 hours to complete
Module details
In this module, we will introduce the core of Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We will see in detail two foundational algorithms in Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings sampling. We will also identify best practices and diagnostics for convergence.
What's included
4 videos5 readings5 assignments2 ungraded labs
Show info about module content
4 videos•Total 18 minutes
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)•4 minutes
Gibbs Sampling•4 minutes
Metropolis-Hastings Sampling•4 minutes
MCMC Convergence•5 minutes
5 readings•Total 68 minutes
Why do we need MCMC?•10 minutes
Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampling•35 minutes
Other Sampling Algorithms•10 minutes
Module Wrap-Up •3 minutes
Course Summary•10 minutes
5 assignments•Total 100 minutes
MCMC Method•10 minutes
Lab Check-in: Gibbs sampling in Python•5 minutes
MCMC Algorithms•25 minutes
Test Yourself: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods•30 minutes
Let's Practice: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods•30 minutes
2 ungraded labs•Total 120 minutes
Gibbs sampling in Python•60 minutes
Metropolis Hastings Bayesian inference•60 minutes
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Is financial aid available?
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