Math behind Moneyball

University of Houston System

About this Course

50,783 recent views

Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

Learner Career Outcomes

33%

started a new career after completing these courses

25%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 47 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English

Skills you will gain

StatisticsAnalyticsMicrosoft ExcelProbability

Learner Career Outcomes

33%

started a new career after completing these courses

25%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 47 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: English

Instructor

Instructor rating

4.75/5 (5 Ratings)

Professor Wayne Winston

Visiting Professor

Bauer College of Business

9,397 Learners

1 Course

Offered by

University of Houston System

The University of Houston System’s four universities and six regional campuses comprise the only comprehensive higher education system serving the world’s energy capital and the Gulf Coast region. Among institutions nationwide, the UH System remains a model of diversity and a reflection of the city it serves.

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course

Week

Week 1

3 minutes to complete

Before you start...

3 minutes to complete

1 video (Total 2 min), 1 reading

1 video

All you will learn2m

1 reading

Suggested Textbooks (Not Required)1m

5 hours to complete

Module 1

You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.

5 hours to complete

11 videos (Total 90 min), 22 readings, 3 quizzes

11 videos

1.1 Introduction12m

1.2 Pythagorean Theorem12m

1.3 Ten runs = One win6m

Homework Problems 1 and 23m

1.4 Runs created7m

1.5 Runs Created Per Game5m

1.6 Multiple Regression 117m

1.7 Multiple Regression 26m

1.8 Linear Weights6m

1.9 On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage4m

1.10 Barry Bonds Runs per Game6m

22 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel file10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel file10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Homework Problem 310m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Homework Problems 410m

3 practice exercises

Test Questions 1 and 24m

Test Question 32m

Test Question 42m

Week

Week 2

5 hours to complete

Module 2

You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.

5 hours to complete

10 videos (Total 76 min), 23 readings, 2 quizzes

10 videos

2.1 Excel Range Names5m

2.2 Excel Tables5m

2.3 Conditional Formatting: Top Bottom Rules7m

2.4 Conditional Formatting: Data Bars7m

2.5 Conditional Formatting: The Formula Option11m

2.6 COUNTIF and COUNTIFS functions9m

2.7 SUMIF and SUMIFS Functions5m

2.8 AVERAGEIF and AVERAGEIFS Functions6m

2.9 PivotTables I9m

2.10 PivotTables II8m

23 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 510m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 610m

2 practice exercises

Test Question 52m

Test Question 62m

Week

Week 3

3 hours to complete

Module 3

You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.

3 hours to complete

6 videos (Total 71 min), 10 readings, 2 quizzes

6 videos

3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation I15m

3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Part II10m

3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation Part III8m

3.4 Baseball Monte Carlo simulation15m

3.5 Resampling11m

3.6 Deflategate8m

10 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 810m

2 practice exercises

Test Question 72m

Test Question 82m

Week

Week 4

6 hours to complete

Module 4

You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.

6 hours to complete

13 videos (Total 88 min), 27 readings, 5 quizzes

13 videos

4.1 Bunting and Expected Runs5m

4.2 Base Stealing6m

4.3 Range Factor7m

4.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and Fielding12m

4.5 Introduction to Fan Graphs3m

4.6 DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)8m

4.7 Win Probability Added7m

4.8 Runs above Average6m

4.9 WAR (Wins above Replacement)7m

4.10 What Makes your Team Win?2m

4.11 Defensive Shifts8m

4.12 Catcher Framing6m

4.13 Park Factors6m

27 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended reading10m

Homework Problem 910m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 1010m

Homework Problem 1110m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 1210m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 1310m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 1410m

5 practice exercises

Test Question 92m

Test Questions 10&114m

Test Question 122m

Test Question 132m

Test Question 142m

Week

Week 5

6 hours to complete

Module 5

You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.

6 hours to complete

11 videos (Total 117 min), 23 readings, 5 quizzes

11 videos

5.1 Random Variables7m

5.2 The Normal Random Variable20m

5.3 Streakiness10m

5.4 What makes NFL teams win?13m

5.5 Deconstructing the NFL QB rating6m

5.6 Football States and Values10m

5.7 Football Decision Making9m

5.8 The Belichick Decision9m

5.9 Text functions and Analyzing NFL plays13m

5.10 Texans 1st and 10 Play Selection8m

5.11 STDEVIF and Too Many Field Goal Attempts7m

23 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 1510m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 1610m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 1710m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 1810m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 1910m

5 practice exercises

Test Question 152m

Test Question 162m

Test Question 172m

Test Question 182m

Test Question 192m

Week

Week 6

4 hours to complete

Module 6

You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.

4 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 69 min), 16 readings, 4 quizzes

7 videos

6.1 Game Theory Part I12m

6.2 Game Theory Part II8m

6.3 Basketball Shot Selection12m

6.4 Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG)3m

6.5 Hollinger Team Metrics5m

6.6 Four Factors10m

6.7 Basketball Box Score Models13m

16 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 2010m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 2110m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 2210m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 2310m

4 practice exercises

Test Question 202m

Test Question 212m

Test Question 222m

Test Question 232m

Week

Week 7

4 hours to complete

Module 7

You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.

4 hours to complete

8 videos (Total 98 min), 13 readings, 4 quizzes

8 videos

7.1 Extracting Lineup data and Computing raw + -16m

7.2 Computing Pairs Lineup Statistics9m

7.3 Adjusted + -15m

7.4 ESPM RPM (Real Plus Minus)13m

7.5 How Analytics Helped the Mavs beat the Heat12m

7.6 SportsVu data13m

7.7 In Game Basketball Decision-Making12m

7.8 Hack a Jordan (or Dwight)4m

13 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 2410m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 2510m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 2610m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 2710m

4 practice exercises

Test 242m

Test 254m

Test 262m

Test 272m

Week

Week 8

5 hours to complete

Module 8

You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!

5 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 88 min), 18 readings, 5 quizzes

7 videos

8.1 Rating NFL teams18m

8.2 Computing Strength of Schedule11m

8.3 Rating NFL Offenses and Defenses11m

8.4 Multiplicative Rating Models for Soccer17m

8.5 Regularization7m

8.6 Simulating the NCAA Tournament12m

8.7 NCAA Props Bets8m

18 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 2810m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 2910m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 3010m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 3110m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 3210m

5 practice exercises

Test 282m

Test 292m

Test 302m

Test 312m

Test 322m

Week

Week 9

5 hours to complete

Module 9

You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.

5 hours to complete

10 videos (Total 97 min), 19 readings, 4 quizzes

10 videos

9.1 Method of Maximum Likelihood9m

9.2 Rating Teams Based on Wins and Losses9m

9.3 Simulating the NFL Playoffs4m

9.4 Rating NASCAR Drivers10m

9.5 How Good are NFL Point Spreads15m

9.6 Relating the Money Line to Point Spreads9m

9.7 How Can you tell if a Betting System is Successful?11m

9.8 Props Bets I11m

9.9 Props Bet II10m

9.10 Props Bet III5m

19 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 3310m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 3410m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 3510m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 3610m

4 practice exercises

Test 332m

Test 342m

Test 352m

Test 362m

Week

Week 10

4 hours to complete

Module 10

You will learn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to the mean explains the SI cover jinx and how to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golf analytics.

4 hours to complete

7 videos (Total 73 min), 14 readings, 4 quizzes

7 videos

10.1 Kelly Growth Part I10m

10.2 Kelly Growth Part II5m

10.3 Kelly Growth Part III6m

10.4 Regression to the Mean14m

10.5 Daily Fantasy Sports Part I8m

10.6 Daily Fantasy Sports Part II18m

10.7 Golf Analytics10m

14 readings

Download Excel Files (Important!)10m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 3710m

Excel Files10m

Recommended Reading10m

Homework Problem 3810m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 3910m

Excel Files10m

Homework Problem 4010m

4 practice exercises

Test 372m

Test 382m

Test 392m

Test 402m

Week

Week 11

1 hour to complete

Final Exam

Final exam has 10 questions. Please download and open Excel files before taking the exam. You will be referred to Excel files during the exam. Each question is wort 1 point. You need to answer 6 questions or more correctly to pass the exam.

1 hour to complete

1 reading

1 reading

Download Excel Files10m

1 practice exercise

Final Exam20m

Frequently Asked Questions

When will I have access to the lectures and assignments?
Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.
What will I get if I purchase the Certificate?
When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.
What is the refund policy?
You will be eligible for a full refund until two weeks after your payment date, or (for courses that have just launched) until two weeks after the first session of the course begins, whichever is later. You cannot receive a refund once you’ve earned a Course Certificate, even if you complete the course within the two-week refund period. See our full refund policy.
Is financial aid available?
Yes, Coursera provides financial aid to learners who cannot afford the fee. Apply for it by clicking on the Financial Aid link beneath the "Enroll" button on the left. You’ll be prompted to complete an application and will be notified if you are approved. Learn more.

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