Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life.
Offered By
Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age
University of Michigan
About this Course
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Learner Career Outcomes
14%
started a new career after completing these courses
29%
got a tangible career benefit from this course
17%
got a pay increase or promotion
Skills you will gain
Sunk CostsCost–Benefit AnalysisCognitive BiasDecision-MakingData AnalysisStatistical Inference
Learner Career Outcomes
14%
started a new career after completing these courses
29%
got a tangible career benefit from this course
17%
got a pay increase or promotion
Shareable Certificate
Earn a Certificate upon completion
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Flexible deadlines
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Beginner Level
Approx. 13 hours to complete
Suggested: 4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week
English
Subtitles: English, Ukrainian
Syllabus - What you will learn from this course
1 hour to complete
Introduction
Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning.
1 hour to complete
1 video (Total 15 min), 3 readings
1 video
3 readings
Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Help us learn more about you!10m
1 hour to complete
Lesson 1: Statistics
Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems.
1 hour to complete
2 videos (Total 29 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz
2 readings
Interactive Activity10m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 practice exercise
Lesson 1 Quiz30m
2 hours to complete
Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers
How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants.
2 hours to complete
2 videos (Total 27 min), 2 readings, 4 quizzes
2 readings
Interactive Activity10m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
4 practice exercises
Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5m
Pre-lecture Quiz5m
Lesson 2 Quiz30m
Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5m
2 hours to complete
Lesson 3: Correlation
It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error.
2 hours to complete
4 videos (Total 25 min), 3 readings, 2 quizzes
4 videos
The Draw-a-Person Test4m
Illusory Correlation6m
Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9m
3 readings
Pre-lecture Activity10m
Interactive Activity10m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 practice exercises
Correlation Exercises30m
Lesson 3 Quiz30m
2 hours to complete
Lesson 4: Experiments
You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments.
2 hours to complete
3 videos (Total 42 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz
3 videos
A/B Testing9m
Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17m
2 readings
Pre-lecture Activity5m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 practice exercise
Lesson 4 Quiz30m
1 hour to complete
Lesson 5: Prediction
You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events.
1 hour to complete
2 videos (Total 40 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz
2 readings
Pre-lecture Question5m
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 practice exercise
Lesson 5 Quiz30m
1 hour to complete
Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases
We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind.
1 hour to complete
3 videos (Total 36 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes
3 videos
Heuristics11m
Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11m
1 reading
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 practice exercises
Pre-lecture Quiz5m
Lesson 6 Quiz30m
1 hour to complete
Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding
How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire.
1 hour to complete
3 videos (Total 38 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes
1 reading
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 practice exercises
Pre-lecture Activity5m
Lesson 7 Quiz30m
2 hours to complete
Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning
The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems.
2 hours to complete
2 videos (Total 36 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes
1 reading
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 practice exercises
Pre-lecture Quiz30m
Lesson 8 Quiz30m
16 minutes to complete
Conclusion
16 minutes to complete
1 video (Total 6 min), 2 readings
1 video
2 readings
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Post-course Survey10m
Reviews
4.7
TOP REVIEWS FROM MINDWARE: CRITICAL THINKING FOR THE INFORMATION AGE
by JMJul 28, 2019
This course is great! I recommend it to anyone who wants to be able to reason better and have more capabilities in making decisions. Thank you Dr. Nisbett and Coursera for providing this course.
by NPAug 6, 2017
A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.
by PDec 23, 2018
Excellent introduction to basic tools (awareness of some cognitive biases / heuristics, the importance of contextual factors, etc.) for sharpening our minds: It´s a must! :-)
by SNMay 26, 2017
Excellent! A very informative course delivered in a very effective manner. I would highly recommend this course to all who have any interest at all in critical thinking.
by JIOct 9, 2017
The professor is likable, the content is engaging and accessible, and the lessons are applicable to everyone's daily life in both personal and professional situations.
by SPJul 9, 2017
Excellent course. I learnt a lot from this course. It has changed my thinking and I hope to be able to use it in making decisions both at home as well as at work.
by GLJan 26, 2018
This is a fantastic course.\n\nEven with two masters degrees I learnt a lot and have recommended it to my colleagues.\n\nIt should be taught to all students.
by MPSep 19, 2019
This has been most excellent.\n\nI found the baserate false alarm rate examples particularly useful and am inspired to use this in a new context
Offered by
University of Michigan
The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future.
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