Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age

University of Michigan

About this Course

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Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life.
What kinds of things will you learn? Why it’s usually a mistake to interview people for a job. Why it’s highly unlikely that, if your first meal in a new restaurant is excellent, you will find the next meal to be as good. Why economists regularly walk out of movies and leave restaurant food uneaten. Why getting your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated usually means your next season is going to be a disappointment. Why you might not have a disease even though you’ve tested positive for it. Why you’re never going to know how coffee affects you unless you conduct an experiment in which you flip a coin to determine whether you will have coffee on a given day. Why it might be a mistake to use an office in a building you own as opposed to having your office in someone else’s building. Why you should never keep a stock that’s going down in hopes that it will go back up and prevent you from losing any of your initial investment. Why it is that a great deal of health information presented in the media is misinformation.

Learner Career Outcomes

12%

started a new career after completing these courses

24%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

14%

got a pay increase or promotion

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 13 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: Arabic, French, Ukrainian, Portuguese (European), Chinese (Simplified), Italian, Vietnamese, Korean, German, Russian, Turkish, English, Spanish

Skills you will gain

Sunk CostsCost–Benefit AnalysisCognitive BiasDecision-MakingData AnalysisStatistical Inference

Learner Career Outcomes

12%

started a new career after completing these courses

24%

got a tangible career benefit from this course

14%

got a pay increase or promotion

Shareable Certificate

Earn a Certificate upon completion

100% online

Start instantly and learn at your own schedule.

Flexible deadlines

Reset deadlines in accordance to your schedule.

Beginner Level

Approx. 13 hours to complete

English

Subtitles: Arabic, French, Ukrainian, Portuguese (European), Chinese (Simplified), Italian, Vietnamese, Korean, German, Russian, Turkish, English, Spanish

Instructor

Instructor rating

4.82/5 (143 Ratings)

Richard E. Nisbett

Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor

Department of Psychology

46,042 Learners

1 Course

Offered by

University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future.

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course

Content Rating97%(4,370 ratings)

Week

Week 1

1 hour to complete

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning.

1 hour to complete

1 video (Total 15 min), 3 readings

1 video

Course Introduction15m

3 readings

Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Help us learn more about you!10m

1 hour to complete

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems.

1 hour to complete

2 videos (Total 29 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz

2 videos

Variables - Normal Distribution12m

Introduction to Correlation16m

2 readings

Interactive Activity10m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

1 practice exercise

Lesson 1 Quiz30m

2 hours to complete

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants.

2 hours to complete

2 videos (Total 27 min), 2 readings, 4 quizzes

2 videos

The Law of Large Numbers: Part 111m

The Law of Large Numbers: Part 215m

2 readings

Interactive Activity10m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

4 practice exercises

Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5m

Pre-lecture Quiz5m

Lesson 2 Quiz30m

Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5m

Week

Week 2

2 hours to complete

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error.

2 hours to complete

4 videos (Total 25 min), 3 readings, 2 quizzes

4 videos

Correlations3m

The Draw-a-Person Test4m

Illusory Correlation6m

Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9m

3 readings

Pre-lecture Activity10m

Interactive Activity10m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

2 practice exercises

Correlation Exercises30m

Lesson 3 Quiz30m

2 hours to complete

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments.

2 hours to complete

3 videos (Total 42 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz

3 videos

The Superiority of Experiments over Correlations15m

A/B Testing9m

Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17m

2 readings

Pre-lecture Activity5m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

1 practice exercise

Lesson 4 Quiz30m

Week

Week 3

1 hour to complete

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events.

1 hour to complete

2 videos (Total 40 min), 2 readings, 1 quiz

2 videos

Regression to the Mean16m

Base Rate22m

2 readings

Pre-lecture Question5m

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

1 practice exercise

Lesson 5 Quiz30m

1 hour to complete

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind.

1 hour to complete

3 videos (Total 36 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes

3 videos

The Illusion of Objectivity13m

Heuristics11m

Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11m

1 reading

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

2 practice exercises

Pre-lecture Quiz5m

Lesson 6 Quiz30m

Week

Week 4

1 hour to complete

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire.

1 hour to complete

3 videos (Total 38 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes

3 videos

Cost-Benefit Analysis14m

Sunk Costs10m

Loss Aversion12m

1 reading

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

2 practice exercises

Pre-lecture Activity5m

Lesson 7 Quiz30m

2 hours to complete

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems.

2 hours to complete

2 videos (Total 36 min), 1 reading, 2 quizzes

2 videos

Logical Reasoning18m

Dialectical Reasoning16m

1 reading

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

2 practice exercises

Pre-lecture Quiz30m

Lesson 8 Quiz30m

26 minutes to complete

Conclusion

26 minutes to complete

1 video (Total 6 min), 3 readings

1 video

Concluding Thoughts6m

3 readings

(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Post-course Survey10m

Keep Learning with Michigan Online!10m

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Will I earn university credit for completing the Course?
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Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age