Question 1

What is forecasting, and why is it important?

Accepted Answer

Forecasting is the use of past and present data to predict the future. This process is hugely important for strategic thinking in businesses, governments, and other organizations, who use forecasts of market factors like supply and demand as well as macroeconomic trends to guide their future plans and investment decisions.

Forecasts often use a statistical technique called regression analysis, which looks at past trends of two or more variables of interest to see how they are correlated over time. Once these relationships are established, modelers can then create a relatively simple projection for how trends might play out in the future based on expected values of the independent variable. For example, if you make assumptions about the overall growth of the economy, you can predict how that will influence demand for your product.

Of course, the future is full of surprises that can challenge these assumptions. Thus, more sophisticated approaches to forecasting may use the Monte Carlo method or other tools to run many simulations of the future based on an expected range of values for the independent variable. By creating a probabilistic model showing a distribution of expected outcomes, forecasters can use a scenario development process to stimulate thinking across different futures with a goal of creating more robust insights.

Question 2

What kind of career can I have with a background in forecasting?

Accepted Answer

The specialized skills of forecasting are tools of the trade for the analysts employed by businesses, banks, insurance companies, governments, and other organizations. By combining financial modeling expertise with a study of historical trends and data within a specific industry or geographic area, they seek to provide actionable insights to guide investments and other planning decisions.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, financial analysts earned a median income of $85,660 per year as of 2018. They typically have at least a bachelor’s degree in the field of finance, economics, statistics, or mathematics, although professionals with a master’s degree in finance or business administration may be able to advance to higher-paying roles as fund managers or portfolio managers directly responsible for putting forecasts to use.

Question 3

Can I learn about forecasting by taking online courses on Coursera?

Accepted Answer

Yes, you certainly can. Coursera has partnered with top-ranked universities like the University of Pennsylvania and Emory University, as well as the Institute for the Future, to offer a wide range of courses in forecasting and related topics such as business analytics and futures thinking.

These courses and Specializations can equip you with the tools you need to build the powerful financial and economic models relied upon by decision makers in both the private and public sector. And, with the ability to learn remotely on a flexible schedule, you won’t need a crystal ball to fit an online education in forecasting into your own plans for the future.

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