214 results for "forecasting"

Forecasting is the use of past and present data to predict the future. This process is hugely important for strategic thinking in businesses, governments, and other organizations, who use forecasts of market factors like supply and demand as well as macroeconomic trends to guide their future plans and investment decisions.

Forecasts often use a statistical technique called regression analysis, which looks at past trends of two or more variables of interest to see how they are correlated over time. Once these relationships are established, modelers can then create a relatively simple projection for how trends might play out in the future based on expected values of the independent variable. For example, if you make assumptions about the overall growth of the economy, you can predict how that will influence demand for your product.

Of course, the future is full of surprises that can challenge these assumptions. Thus, more sophisticated approaches to forecasting may use the Monte Carlo method or other tools to run many simulations of the future based on an expected range of values for the independent variable. By creating a probabilistic model showing a distribution of expected outcomes, forecasters can use a scenario development process to stimulate thinking across different futures with a goal of creating more robust insights.‎

The specialized skills of forecasting are tools of the trade for the analysts employed by businesses, banks, insurance companies, governments, and other organizations. By combining financial modeling expertise with a study of historical trends and data within a specific industry or geographic area, they seek to provide actionable insights to guide investments and other planning decisions.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, financial analysts earned a median income of $85,660 per year as of 2018. They typically have at least a bachelor’s degree in the field of finance, economics, statistics, or mathematics, although professionals with a master’s degree in finance or business administration may be able to advance to higher-paying roles as fund managers or portfolio managers directly responsible for putting forecasts to use.‎

Yes, you certainly can. Coursera has partnered with top-ranked universities like the University of Pennsylvania and Emory University, as well as the Institute for the Future, to offer a wide range of courses in forecasting and related topics such as business analytics and futures thinking.

These courses and Specializations can equip you with the tools you need to build the powerful financial and economic models relied upon by decision makers in both the private and public sector. And, with the ability to learn remotely on a flexible schedule, you won’t need a crystal ball to fit an online education in forecasting into your own plans for the future.‎

Experience with spotting and understanding trends is helpful to have before learning forecasting. This can be accomplished by watching the news and keeping up with social media regularly. Or you may serve in a marketing or media internship to get a solid background that will help you as you start to learn forecasting. Basic math skills are also essential, as well as a sound understanding of statistics and how to plot graphs and charts. It's also helpful to have experience using Microsoft Excel so that you'll be familiar with it when you start to learn the components of a forecasting model.‎

People who are interested in business and marketing may be well suited for roles in forecasting. It helps to have an interest in consumers and products, whether that be in the field of fashion, technology, or other markets, and most forecasters need to have an interest in multiple industries. An interest and aptitude for math and statistics are also important to have since forecasters work with numbers, data, analytics, and research all the time. People who are both analytical and creative do well as forecasters. And people who are media savvy and enjoy social media and consuming news coverage daily are also generally well suited for roles in forecasting.‎

Learning forecasting may be right for you if analyzing consumer data and coming up with insights to make predictions sounds interesting to you. Forecasters often travel so they can gather data in different areas of the country or world and spot trends, so if you enjoy a more mobile lifestyle, learning forecasting may be right for you. When you learn forecasting, you'll also be responsible for writing reports and presenting information to clients in a way that's easy for them to understand and take action on, so you'll need to be comfortable with this and be willing to become proficient at it.‎